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TuS Koblenz vs Auersmacher — Oberliga - Promotion Round 2022

TuS Koblenz
TuS Koblenz
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Auersmacher
Auersmacher
M. Stahl 64'
D. Esmel 12'
F. Simon 18'
5/14/2023Oberliga - Promotion RoundOberliga - Promotion Round · Rh/Pf/S - Promotion Round - 8Stadion Oberwerth

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

TuS Koblenz75%
×Draw16%
Auersmacher9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuS Koblenz
2.48
Auersmacher
0.74

TuS Koblenz creates 235% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

TuS Koblenz
2.17
Auersmacher
0.80

allows per match

TuS Koblenz
0.67
Auersmacher
2.80

finishing

TuS Koblenz+0.00on par
Auersmacher+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Koblenz ↓

Auersmacher →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

TuS Koblenz or draw
91%
TuS Koblenz or Auersmacher
84%
Draw or Auersmacher
25%

Winning margin

TuS Koblenz wins by 2+
53%
Auersmacher wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

TuS Koblenz 1+ goals
92%
TuS Koblenz 2+ goals
70%
TuS Koblenz 3+ goals
44%
Auersmacher 1+ goals
52%
Auersmacher 2+ goals
17%
Auersmacher 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

TuS Koblenz (draw refunded)
89%
Auersmacher (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Koblenz at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Auersmacher away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Koblenz attack 2.17 + Auersmacher defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.48

Auersmacher attack 0.80 + TuS Koblenz defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

TuS Koblenz scores more
75%
level
16%
Auersmacher scores more
9%

TuS Koblenz at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "TuS Koblenz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
D. Esmel
18'
F. Simon
64'
M. Stahl

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TuS Koblenz vs Auersmacher

TuS Koblenz beat Auersmacher 2-1 in Oberliga - Promotion Round on May 14, 2023.

Goals: D. Esmel (12'), F. Simon (18'), M. Stahl (64').

The match was played at Stadion Oberwerth in Koblenz.