Auersmacher 4–4 TuS Koblenz: Result & Stats

Auersmacher

FT

4 – 4

HT: 1 – 0

TuS Koblenz

3/7/2026

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 21Saar-Blies-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Auersmacher35%

×Draw23%

TuS Koblenz43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AuersmacherExpected goals in this matchTuS Koblenz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.81

Auersmacher

1.61

TuS Koblenz

1.81

TuS Koblenz creates 12% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 60 away

1.90

creates per match

1.85

1.78

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Auersmacher

1.90

TuS Koblenz

1.85

allows per match

Auersmacher

1.78

TuS Koblenz

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Auersmacher+0.00on par

TuS Koblenz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Auersmacher ↓

TuS Koblenz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Auersmacher or draw

57%

Auersmacher or TuS Koblenz

77%

Draw or TuS Koblenz

65%

Winning margin

Auersmacher wins by 2+

17%

TuS Koblenz wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Auersmacher 1+ goals

80%

Auersmacher 2+ goals

48%

Auersmacher 3+ goals

22%

TuS Koblenz 1+ goals

84%

TuS Koblenz 2+ goals

54%

TuS Koblenz 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Auersmacher (draw refunded)

45%

TuS Koblenz (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Auersmacher at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.78 · 63 matches

TuS Koblenz away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Auersmacher attack 1.90 + TuS Koblenz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.61

TuS Koblenz attack 1.85 + Auersmacher defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Auersmacher scores more

35%

level

23%

TuS Koblenz scores more

43%

TuS Koblenz at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "TuS Koblenz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff