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Auersmacher vs TuS Koblenz — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Auersmacher
Auersmacher
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
TuS Koblenz
TuS Koblenz
M. Escher 52'
D. Grgic 56'
N. Alsbach 23'
11/16/2024Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 17Kunstrasenplatz Auersmacher

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Auersmacher35%
×Draw23%
TuS Koblenz43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Auersmacher
1.61
TuS Koblenz
1.81

TuS Koblenz creates 12% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 60 away

creates per match

Auersmacher
1.90
TuS Koblenz
1.85

allows per match

Auersmacher
1.78
TuS Koblenz
1.33

finishing

Auersmacher+0.00on par
TuS Koblenz+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Auersmacher ↓

TuS Koblenz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Auersmacher or draw
57%
Auersmacher or TuS Koblenz
77%
Draw or TuS Koblenz
65%

Winning margin

Auersmacher wins by 2+
17%
TuS Koblenz wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Auersmacher 1+ goals
80%
Auersmacher 2+ goals
48%
Auersmacher 3+ goals
22%
TuS Koblenz 1+ goals
84%
TuS Koblenz 2+ goals
54%
TuS Koblenz 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Auersmacher (draw refunded)
45%
TuS Koblenz (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Auersmacher at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.78 · 63 matches

TuS Koblenz away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Auersmacher attack 1.90 + TuS Koblenz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.61

TuS Koblenz attack 1.85 + Auersmacher defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Auersmacher scores more
35%
level
23%
TuS Koblenz scores more
43%

TuS Koblenz at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "TuS Koblenz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
N. Alsbach
52'
M. Escher
56'
D. Grgic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Auersmacher vs TuS Koblenz

TuS Koblenz beat Auersmacher 2-1 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on November 16, 2024.

Goals: N. Alsbach (23'), M. Escher (52'), D. Grgic (56').

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Auersmacher in Kleinblittersdorf.