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Turrialba Fc vs Barrio México — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Turrialba Fc
Turrialba Fc
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Barrio México
Barrio México
C. Elizondo 69'
J. Hansen 24'
1/22/2022Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 2Estadio Rafael Ángel Camacho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Turrialba Fc31%
×Draw25%
Barrio México44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turrialba Fc
1.29
Barrio México
1.57

Barrio México creates 22% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 43 away

creates per match

Turrialba Fc
1.20
Barrio México
1.42

allows per match

Turrialba Fc
1.73
Barrio México
1.37

finishing

Turrialba Fc+0.00on par
Barrio México+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turrialba Fc ↓

Barrio México →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Turrialba Fc or draw
56%
Turrialba Fc or Barrio México
75%
Draw or Barrio México
69%

Winning margin

Turrialba Fc wins by 2+
13%
Barrio México wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Turrialba Fc 1+ goals
72%
Turrialba Fc 2+ goals
37%
Turrialba Fc 3+ goals
14%
Barrio México 1+ goals
79%
Barrio México 2+ goals
46%
Barrio México 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Turrialba Fc (draw refunded)
42%
Barrio México (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turrialba Fc at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.73 · 101 matches

Barrio México away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.37 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turrialba Fc attack 1.20 + Barrio México defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.29

Barrio México attack 1.42 + Turrialba Fc defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Turrialba Fc scores more
31%
level
25%
Barrio México scores more
44%

Barrio México at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Barrio México will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
J. Hansen
69'
C. Elizondo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Turrialba Fc vs Barrio México

Turrialba Fc and Barrio México drew 1-1 in Liga de Ascenso on January 22, 2022.

Goals: J. Hansen (24'), C. Elizondo (69').

The match was played at Estadio Rafael Ángel Camacho in Turrialba.