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Barrio México vs Turrialba Fc — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Barrio México
Barrio México
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Turrialba Fc
Turrialba Fc
Unknown 88'
J. Castro 45+6'
3/6/2022Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 11Estadio Municipal El Labrador de Coronado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Barrio México69%
×Draw18%
Turrialba Fc12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barrio México
2.23
Turrialba Fc
0.82

Barrio México creates 172% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 100 away

creates per match

Barrio México
2.07
Turrialba Fc
0.87

allows per match

Barrio México
0.77
Turrialba Fc
2.39

finishing

Barrio México+0.00on par
Turrialba Fc+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrio México ↓

Turrialba Fc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Barrio México or draw
88%
Barrio México or Turrialba Fc
82%
Draw or Turrialba Fc
31%

Winning margin

Barrio México wins by 2+
45%
Turrialba Fc wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Barrio México 1+ goals
89%
Barrio México 2+ goals
65%
Barrio México 3+ goals
38%
Turrialba Fc 1+ goals
56%
Turrialba Fc 2+ goals
20%
Turrialba Fc 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Barrio México (draw refunded)
85%
Turrialba Fc (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrio México at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.77 · 44 matches

Turrialba Fc away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.39 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrio México attack 2.07 + Turrialba Fc defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 2.23

Turrialba Fc attack 0.87 + Barrio México defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Barrio México scores more
69%
level
18%
Turrialba Fc scores more
12%

Barrio México at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Barrio México will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+6'
J. Castro
88'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Barrio México 2–0 Turrialba Fc

Barrio México beat Turrialba Fc 2-0 in Liga de Ascenso on March 6, 2022.

Goals: J. Castro (45+6'), ? (88').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Labrador de Coronado in San Jose.