Barrio México 2–1 Turrialba Fc: Result & Stats

Barrio México

FT

2 – 1

Turrialba Fc

D. Jimenez 68'

A. Mata 27'

K. Diaz 55'

8/14/2021

Liga de Ascenso · Apertura - 2Estadio Jorge Hernán Cuty Monge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Barrio México69%

×Draw18%

Turrialba Fc13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barrio MéxicoExpected goals in this matchTurrialba Fc

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.24

0.83

Barrio México

2.24

Turrialba Fc

0.83

Barrio México creates 170% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 100 away

2.09

creates per match

0.87

0.80

allows per match

2.39

creates per match

Barrio México

2.09

Turrialba Fc

0.87

allows per match

Barrio México

0.80

Turrialba Fc

2.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barrio México+0.00on par

Turrialba Fc+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrio México ↓

Turrialba Fc →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Barrio México or draw

87%

Barrio México or Turrialba Fc

82%

Draw or Turrialba Fc

31%

Winning margin

Barrio México wins by 2+

45%

Turrialba Fc wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Barrio México 1+ goals

89%

Barrio México 2+ goals

65%

Barrio México 3+ goals

38%

Turrialba Fc 1+ goals

56%

Turrialba Fc 2+ goals

20%

Turrialba Fc 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Barrio México (draw refunded)

85%

Turrialba Fc (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrio México at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.80 · 45 matches

Turrialba Fc away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.39 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrio México attack 2.09 + Turrialba Fc defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 2.24

Turrialba Fc attack 0.87 + Barrio México defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Barrio México scores more

69%

level

18%

Turrialba Fc scores more

13%

Barrio México at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Barrio México will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

A. Mata

55'

K. Diaz

68'

D. Jimenez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff