Turku PS 4–1 Klubi-04: Result & Stats | Ykkösliiga

Turku PS

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Klubi-04

O. Dahlfors 72'

R. Riski 27' (pen)

M. Kauppila 12'

E. Kawakita 9'

E. Ingman 42'

7/9/2025

Ykkösliiga · Round 14Veritas Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Turku PS43%

×Draw23%

Klubi-0434%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Turku PSExpected goals in this matchKlubi-04

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.56

Turku PS

1.78

Klubi-04

1.56

Turku PS creates 14% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 21 away

2.18

creates per match

1.57

1.54

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Turku PS

2.18

Klubi-04

1.57

allows per match

Turku PS

1.54

Klubi-04

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Turku PS+0.00on par

Klubi-04+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turku PS ↓

Klubi-04 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Turku PS or draw

66%

Turku PS or Klubi-04

77%

Draw or Klubi-04

57%

Winning margin

Turku PS wins by 2+

23%

Klubi-04 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Turku PS 1+ goals

83%

Turku PS 2+ goals

53%

Turku PS 3+ goals

26%

Klubi-04 1+ goals

79%

Klubi-04 2+ goals

46%

Klubi-04 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Turku PS (draw refunded)

56%

Klubi-04 (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turku PS at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.54 · 28 matches

Klubi-04 away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.38 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turku PS attack 2.18 + Klubi-04 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.78

Klubi-04 attack 1.57 + Turku PS defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Turku PS scores more

43%

level

23%

Klubi-04 scores more

34%

Turku PS at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Turku PS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

E. Kawakita↳ M. Kauppila

12'

M. Kauppila↳ O. Dahlfors

27'

R. RiskiPenalty

28'

V. Pohtio← T. Pippola

42'

E. Ingman↳ A. Le Goff-Conan

45'

J. Lietsa

46'

L. Palmula← A. Nylund

53'

64'

65'

65'

68'

72'

O. Dahlfors↳ V. Pohtio

80'

E. Tuominen← A. Soiniemi

86'

A. Le Goff-Conan

90'

N. Rajamaki← R. Riski

Turku

Klubi-04

30

Ramula

49

Hannula

53

Kari

63

A

Goff-Cona

65

▼

Soiniemi

67

⚽

▼

Ingman

68

▼

Nylund

91

Vuorinen

95

Baranov

97

▼

Mero

98

▼

12

2

4

8

10

⚽

▼

Riski

11

⚽A

Dahlfors

14

⚽

Kawakita

17

Sihvonen

19

▼

Pippola

20

⚽A

Kauppila

26

Ikonen

Manager: Ivan Piñol

28'▲V. Pohtio←▼T. Pippola

90'▲N. Rajamaki←▼R. Riski

Turku PS substitutes

35Lauri5Aitos16Pohtio18Rajamaki25Pohjolainen

Manager: A. Lalli

46'▲L. Palmula←▼A. Nylund

64'▲M. Hyvonen←▼T. Mero

65'▲A. Traore←▼J. Lietsa

65'▲L. Rippon←▼E. Ingman

80'▲E. Tuominen←▼A. Soiniemi

Klubi-04 substitutes

89Haapanen43Tuominen61Konttas62Palmula73Traore74Hyvonen77Rippon94Kajanoja96Toivonen

Match Recap: Turku PS vs Klubi-04

Turku PS beat Klubi-04 4-1 in Ykkösliiga on July 9, 2025.

Goals: E. Kawakita (9'), M. Kauppila (12'), R. Riski (27' pen), E. Ingman (42'), O. Dahlfors (72').

The match was played at Veritas Stadion in Turku.

Turku PS vs Klubi-04 — Ykkösliiga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Turku PS vs Klubi-04