Klubi-04 2–4 Turku PS: Result & Stats | Ykkönen

Klubi-04

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Turku PS

K. Meriluoto 74', 44'

E. Heinonen 90+5'

K. Hämäläinen 78'

A. Muzaci 33'

J. Latonen 4'

9/19/2021

Ykkönen · Round 14Bolt Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Klubi-0444%

×Draw24%

Turku PS31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Klubi-04Expected goals in this matchTurku PS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.31

Klubi-04

1.60

Turku PS

1.31

Klubi-04 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 53 away

2.24

creates per match

1.38

1.24

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Klubi-04

2.24

Turku PS

1.38

allows per match

Klubi-04

1.24

Turku PS

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Klubi-04+0.00on par

Turku PS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Klubi-04 ↓

Turku PS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Klubi-04 or draw

69%

Klubi-04 or Turku PS

76%

Draw or Turku PS

56%

Winning margin

Klubi-04 wins by 2+

22%

Turku PS wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Klubi-04 1+ goals

80%

Klubi-04 2+ goals

47%

Klubi-04 3+ goals

22%

Turku PS 1+ goals

73%

Turku PS 2+ goals

38%

Turku PS 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Klubi-04 (draw refunded)

58%

Turku PS (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Klubi-04 at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.24 · 29 matches

Turku PS away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.96 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Klubi-04 attack 2.24 + Turku PS defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.60

Turku PS attack 1.38 + Klubi-04 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Klubi-04 scores more

44%

level

24%

Turku PS scores more

31%

Klubi-04 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Klubi-04 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

33'

44'

45'

46'

46'

J. Yli-Kokko← D. Gaucho

57'

M. Beuker

67'

O. Jakonen← S. Atakayi

67'

J. Karlsson← S. Benga

67'

E. Heinonen← I. Mettälä

74'

K. Meriluoto

78'

K. Hämäläinen

79'

J. Lehtiranta← M. Beuker

81'

P. Raitanen

84'

A. Sadiku← K. Wallius

85'

A. Moundi← J. Latonen

90+5'

E. Heinonen

Klubi-04

Turku

1

8

6

35

15

▼

Benga

14

Pikkarain

22

⚽

Hämäläine

16

⚽

Muzaci

24

▼

Mettälä

45

▼

Atakayi

23

⚽

▼

45

75

48

68

▼

Beuker

63

▼

54

64

41

74

▼

Terho

71

▼

Gaucho

42

⚽2

Meriluoto

Manager: M. Väyrynen

46'▲D. Rökman←▼C. Terho

46'▲J. Yli-Kokko←▼D. Gaucho

79'▲J. Lehtiranta←▼M. Beuker

84'▲A. Sadiku←▼K. Wallius

Klubi-04 substitutes

67Rökman58Yli-Kokko62Lehtiranta43Sadiku52James53Vehkonen78Ahlblad

Manager: J. Johansson

67'▲O. Jakonen←▼S. Atakayi

67'▲J. Karlsson←▼S. Benga

67'▲E. Heinonen←▼I. Mettälä

85'▲A. Moundi←▼J. Latonen

Turku PS substitutes

9Jakonen20Karlsson21Heinonen2Moundi3Kinnunen12Aaltonen17Espinosa

Match Recap: Klubi-04 vs Turku PS

Turku PS beat Klubi-04 4-2 in Ykkönen on September 19, 2021.

Goals: J. Latonen (4'), A. Muzaci (33'), K. Meriluoto (44', 74'), K. Hämäläinen (78'), E. Heinonen (90+5').

The match was played at Bolt Arena in Helsinki.

Klubi-04 vs Turku PS — Ykkönen 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Klubi-04 vs Turku PS