Turku PS 0–1 Klubi-04: Result & Stats | Ykkönen

Turku PS

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Klubi-04

S. Anini Jr 42'

7/1/2021

Ykkönen · Round 6Veritas Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Turku PS49%

×Draw23%

Klubi-0428%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Turku PSExpected goals in this matchKlubi-04

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.29

Turku PS

1.80

Klubi-04

1.29

Turku PS creates 40% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 34 away

1.86

creates per match

1.50

1.07

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Turku PS

1.86

Klubi-04

1.50

allows per match

Turku PS

1.07

Klubi-04

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Turku PS+0.00on par

Klubi-04+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turku PS ↓

Klubi-04 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Turku PS or draw

72%

Turku PS or Klubi-04

77%

Draw or Klubi-04

51%

Winning margin

Turku PS wins by 2+

27%

Klubi-04 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Turku PS 1+ goals

83%

Turku PS 2+ goals

54%

Turku PS 3+ goals

27%

Klubi-04 1+ goals

72%

Klubi-04 2+ goals

37%

Klubi-04 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Turku PS (draw refunded)

64%

Klubi-04 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turku PS at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.07 · 56 matches

Klubi-04 away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.74 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turku PS attack 1.86 + Klubi-04 defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.80

Klubi-04 attack 1.50 + Turku PS defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Turku PS scores more

49%

level

23%

Klubi-04 scores more

28%

Turku PS at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Turku PS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

K. Kouassivi-Benissan

42'

S. Anini Jr

47'

J. Karlsson

54'

K. Kalabatama← S. Pohjolainen

70'

C. James← D. Cukici

73'

E. Espinosa← O. Jakonen

81'

J. Kytilä← T. Jäntti

87'

S. Heiskanen

89'

A. Sadiku← A. Olusanya

89'

R. Azodo← S. Anini Jr

90+4'

C. Terho

Turku

Klubi-04

45

Henriksso

68

Kouassivi

62

Lehtirant

54

▼

Jäntti

64

Heiskanen

47

Peltola

41

⚽

▼

Jr

67

Terho

73

▼

Cukici

71

Gaucho

57

▼

1

3

4

6

15

18

20

25

▼

Pohjolain

9

▼

Jakonen

16

Muzaci

23

Latonen

Manager: J. Johansson

54'▲K. Kalabatama←▼S. Pohjolainen

73'▲E. Espinosa←▼O. Jakonen

Turku PS substitutes

27Kalabatama17Espinosa28Pöysä30Seppä33Ahmadi24Ohvo32Koski

Manager: M. Väyrynen

70'▲C. James←▼D. Cukici

81'▲J. Kytilä←▼T. Jäntti

89'▲A. Sadiku←▼A. Olusanya

89'▲R. Azodo←▼S. Anini Jr

Klubi-04 substitutes

52James61Kytilä43Sadiku46Azodo42Meriluoto63Wallius78Ahlblad