Turan Turkistan 0–2 FK Tobol Kostanay

Turan Turkistan

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

FK Tobol Kostanay

I. Chesnokov 59'

Rui Costa 21'

10/23/2024

Premier League · Round 15Turkistan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Turan Turkistan26%

×Draw26%

FK Tobol Kostanay48%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Turan TurkistanExpected goals in this matchFK Tobol Kostanay

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.49

Turan Turkistan

1.04

FK Tobol Kostanay

1.49

FK Tobol Kostanay creates 43% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 31 away

0.86

creates per match

1.19

1.79

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Turan Turkistan

0.86

FK Tobol Kostanay

1.19

allows per match

Turan Turkistan

1.79

FK Tobol Kostanay

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Turan Turkistan+0.00on par

FK Tobol Kostanay+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turan Turkistan ↓

FK Tobol Kostanay →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Turan Turkistan or draw

52%

Turan Turkistan or FK Tobol Kostanay

74%

Draw or FK Tobol Kostanay

74%

Winning margin

Turan Turkistan wins by 2+

10%

FK Tobol Kostanay wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Turan Turkistan 1+ goals

65%

Turan Turkistan 2+ goals

28%

Turan Turkistan 3+ goals

9%

FK Tobol Kostanay 1+ goals

77%

FK Tobol Kostanay 2+ goals

44%

FK Tobol Kostanay 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Turan Turkistan (draw refunded)

36%

FK Tobol Kostanay (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turan Turkistan at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

FK Tobol Kostanay away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.23 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turan Turkistan attack 0.86 + FK Tobol Kostanay defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.04

FK Tobol Kostanay attack 1.19 + Turan Turkistan defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Turan Turkistan scores more

26%

level

26%

FK Tobol Kostanay scores more

48%

FK Tobol Kostanay at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FK Tobol Kostanay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

32'

34'

45'

46'

46'

M. Nikolić← S. Satanov

48'

Viktor Velkoski

59'

I. Chesnokov

62'

D. Henen← I. Chesnokov

77'

B. Mukashev← A. Arkhipov

77'

R. Nurmugamet← A. Jakoliš

77'

Z. Zhumashev← Rui Costa

77'

R. Tsonev← E. Ededem

86'

Erkin Tapalov

88'

P. N'Diaye← A. Zuev

88'

B. Galym← A. El Messaoudi

Turan3-4-3

FK4-3-3

▼

Zuev

⚽

▼

Costa

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: R. Alyuetov

46'▲A. Mishov←▼P. Fejzaj

46'▲M. Nikolić←▼S. Satanov

77'▲B. Mukashev←▼A. Arkhipov

77'▲R. Nurmugamet←▼A. Jakoliš

Turan Turkistan substitutes

MishovNikolićMukashevNurmugametKhadzhievSuleyShaikhovZhomartZakirov

Manager: N. Zhumaskaliev

62'▲D. Henen←▼I. Chesnokov

77'▲Z. Zhumashev←▼Rui Costa

77'▲R. Tsonev←▼E. Ededem

88'▲P. N'Diaye←▼A. Zuev

88'▲B. Galym←▼A. El Messaoudi

FK Tobol Kostanay substitutes

HenenZhumashevTsonevN'DiayeGalymAbdullaBusurmanovBozhkoMelikhov

Premier League: Turan Turkistan 0–2 FK Tobol Kostanay

FK Tobol Kostanay beat Turan Turkistan 2-0 in Premier League on October 23, 2024.

Goals: Rui Costa (21'), I. Chesnokov (59').

The match was played at Turkistan Arena in Turkistan.

Turan Turkistan vs FK Tobol Kostanay — Premier League 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Premier League: Turan Turkistan 0–2 FK Tobol Kostanay