FK Tobol Kostanay 2–0 Turan Turkistan

FK Tobol Kostanay

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Turan Turkistan

A. Zuev 72'

A. Tagybergen 4'

8/23/2025

Premier League · Round 22Centralnyj Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

FK Tobol Kostanay66%

×Draw19%

Turan Turkistan15%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Tobol KostanayExpected goals in this matchTuran Turkistan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

0.97

FK Tobol Kostanay

2.27

Turan Turkistan

0.97

FK Tobol Kostanay creates 134% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 13 away

1.86

creates per match

1.00

0.93

allows per match

2.69

creates per match

FK Tobol Kostanay

1.86

Turan Turkistan

1.00

allows per match

FK Tobol Kostanay

0.93

Turan Turkistan

2.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Tobol Kostanay+0.00on par

Turan Turkistan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Tobol Kostanay ↓

Turan Turkistan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

FK Tobol Kostanay or draw

85%

FK Tobol Kostanay or Turan Turkistan

81%

Draw or Turan Turkistan

34%

Winning margin

FK Tobol Kostanay wins by 2+

43%

Turan Turkistan wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

FK Tobol Kostanay 1+ goals

90%

FK Tobol Kostanay 2+ goals

66%

FK Tobol Kostanay 3+ goals

39%

Turan Turkistan 1+ goals

62%

Turan Turkistan 2+ goals

25%

Turan Turkistan 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

FK Tobol Kostanay (draw refunded)

82%

Turan Turkistan (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Tobol Kostanay at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.93 · 28 matches

Turan Turkistan away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Tobol Kostanay attack 1.86 + Turan Turkistan defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.27

Turan Turkistan attack 1.00 + FK Tobol Kostanay defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

FK Tobol Kostanay scores more

66%

level

19%

Turan Turkistan scores more

15%

FK Tobol Kostanay at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "FK Tobol Kostanay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

24'

49'

61'

71'

Victor Braga← Henrique

72'

A. Zuev

73'

R. Usipkhanov← A. Darabaev

74'

R. Chirkov← S. Abzalov

76'

Victor Braga

80'

A. Abbas← V. Trifunovic

82'

B. Galym← A. El Messaoudi

86'

D. Ignatov← Y. Pertsukh

86'

B. Zulfikarov← A. Nazymkhanov

89'

A. Bakitzhanov← A. Zuev

89'

T. Mosiashvili← A. Tagybergen

FK

Turan4-1-4-1

88

Solodovni

48

▼

Trifunovi

22

▼

Pertsukh

18

▼

Nazymkhan

7

▼

Abzalov

6

▼

77

4

5

15

1

44

5

78

4

15

18

⚽

▼

Tagyberge

6

Ededem

10

▼

Messaoudi

27

Zhagorov

17

⚽

▼

Zuev

99

▼

Henrique

71'▲Victor Braga←▼Henrique

82'▲B. Galym←▼A. El Messaoudi

89'▲A. Bakitzhanov←▼A. Zuev

89'▲T. Mosiashvili←▼A. Tagybergen

FK Tobol Kostanay substitutes

38Bakitzhanov35Melikhov33Pivovarov28Ospangali26Zhumadelov16Braga13Mosiashvili8Galym1Busurmanov

Manager: V. Zhukovskiy

73'▲R. Usipkhanov←▼A. Darabaev

74'▲R. Chirkov←▼S. Abzalov

80'▲A. Abbas←▼V. Trifunovic

86'▲D. Ignatov←▼Y. Pertsukh

86'▲B. Zulfikarov←▼A. Nazymkhanov

Turan Turkistan substitutes

71Chirkov30Ignatov29Zulfikarov25Sapanov24Duysenbekuly16Tokmagambetov11Abbas10Usipkhanov9Zulfikarov8Kuralbaev

Premier League: FK Tobol Kostanay 2–0 Turan Turkistan

FK Tobol Kostanay beat Turan Turkistan 2-0 in Premier League on August 23, 2025.

Goals: A. Tagybergen (4'), A. Zuev (72').

The match was played at Centralnyj Stadion in Kostanay.

FK Tobol Kostanay vs Turan Turkistan — Premier League 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Premier League: FK Tobol Kostanay 2–0 Turan Turkistan