FK Tobol Kostanay 2–0 Turan Turkistan

FK Tobol Kostanay

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Turan Turkistan

D. Henen 62'

A. El Messaoudi 40' (pen)

3/2/2024

Premier League · Round 1Tobyl Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

FK Tobol Kostanay67%

×Draw19%

Turan Turkistan14%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Tobol KostanayExpected goals in this matchTuran Turkistan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

0.92

FK Tobol Kostanay

2.25

Turan Turkistan

0.92

FK Tobol Kostanay creates 145% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 14 away

1.86

creates per match

0.93

0.90

allows per match

2.64

creates per match

FK Tobol Kostanay

1.86

Turan Turkistan

0.93

allows per match

FK Tobol Kostanay

0.90

Turan Turkistan

2.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Tobol Kostanay+0.00on par

Turan Turkistan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Tobol Kostanay ↓

Turan Turkistan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

FK Tobol Kostanay or draw

86%

FK Tobol Kostanay or Turan Turkistan

81%

Draw or Turan Turkistan

33%

Winning margin

FK Tobol Kostanay wins by 2+

44%

Turan Turkistan wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

FK Tobol Kostanay 1+ goals

89%

FK Tobol Kostanay 2+ goals

65%

FK Tobol Kostanay 3+ goals

39%

Turan Turkistan 1+ goals

60%

Turan Turkistan 2+ goals

23%

Turan Turkistan 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

FK Tobol Kostanay (draw refunded)

83%

Turan Turkistan (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Tobol Kostanay at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.90 · 29 matches

Turan Turkistan away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Tobol Kostanay attack 1.86 + Turan Turkistan defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.25

Turan Turkistan attack 0.93 + FK Tobol Kostanay defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

FK Tobol Kostanay scores more

67%

level

19%

Turan Turkistan scores more

14%

FK Tobol Kostanay at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "FK Tobol Kostanay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

P. Ndiaye

38'

T. Zakirov

40'

A. El MessaoudiPenalty

44'

F. Ben Choug

46'

V. Velkoski← S. Satanov

46'

D. Mawutor← A. Sokolenko

57'

L. Vaca← F. Ben Choug

62'

D. Henen

64'

R. Nurmugamet← B. Sluka

66'

G. Cooper← D. Henen

68'

R. Asrankulov

72'

R. Tsonev← Y. Shakhov

72'

Z. Zhumashev← I. Ivanović

86'

A. Suley← A. Arkhipov

87'

N. Buribayev← A. El Messaoudi

87'

R. Valiullin← I. Chesnokov

90+4'

G. Cooper

FK

Turan

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Henen

Manager: M. Ćurčić

66'▲G. Cooper←▼D. Henen

72'▲R. Tsonev←▼Y. Shakhov

72'▲Z. Zhumashev←▼I. Ivanović

87'▲N. Buribayev←▼A. El Messaoudi

87'▲R. Valiullin←▼I. Chesnokov

FK Tobol Kostanay substitutes

CooperTsonevZhumashevBuribayevValiullinGabaraevAbdullaBusurmanovGalymMelikhovDomgjoni

Manager: R. Alyuetov

46'▲V. Velkoski←▼S. Satanov

46'▲D. Mawutor←▼A. Sokolenko

57'▲L. Vaca←▼F. Ben Choug

64'▲R. Nurmugamet←▼B. Sluka

86'▲A. Suley←▼A. Arkhipov

Turan Turkistan substitutes

VelkoskiMawutorVacaNurmugametSuleyZhomartDuisenbekulyShamshiKhadzhievMukashevUsipkhanov