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Tuntum vs Sampaio Correa — League #608 2026

Tuntum
Tuntum
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sampaio Correa
Sampaio Correa
Unknown 79'
Emerson Carioca 15'
1/28/2026League #608League #608 · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Tuntum23%
×Draw32%
Sampaio Correa45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tuntum
0.67
Sampaio Correa
1.08

Sampaio Correa creates 61% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 16 away

creates per match

Tuntum
0.71
Sampaio Correa
0.88

allows per match

Tuntum
1.29
Sampaio Correa
0.63

finishing

Tuntum+0.00on par
Sampaio Correa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 74Over: 2674%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 68Yes: 3268%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tuntum ↓

Sampaio Correa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–119%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
52%48%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Tuntum or draw
55%
Tuntum or Sampaio Correa
68%
Draw or Sampaio Correa
77%

Winning margin

Tuntum wins by 2+
6%
Sampaio Correa wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Tuntum 1+ goals
49%
Tuntum 2+ goals
15%
Tuntum 3+ goals
3%
Sampaio Correa 1+ goals
66%
Sampaio Correa 2+ goals
29%
Sampaio Correa 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tuntum (draw refunded)
33%
Sampaio Correa (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tuntum at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Sampaio Correa away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tuntum attack 0.71 + Sampaio Correa defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.67

Sampaio Correa attack 0.88 + Tuntum defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tuntum scores more
23%
level
32%
Sampaio Correa scores more
45%

Sampaio Correa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sampaio Correa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
Emerson Carioca
79'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tuntum vs Sampaio Correa

Tuntum and Sampaio Correa drew 1-1 in League #608 on January 28, 2026.

Goals: Emerson Carioca (15'), ? (79').