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Tuntum vs Sampaio Correa — League #608 2026

Tuntum
Tuntum
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sampaio Correa
Sampaio Correa
1/21/2024League #608League #608 · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Rafael Seabra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Tuntum17%
×Draw32%
Sampaio Correa51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tuntum
0.52
Sampaio Correa
1.15

Sampaio Correa creates 121% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Tuntum
0.71
Sampaio Correa
1.00

allows per match

Tuntum
1.29
Sampaio Correa
0.33

finishing

Tuntum+0.00on par
Sampaio Correa+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tuntum ↓

Sampaio Correa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–122%
0–212%
0–35%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–13%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Tuntum or draw
49%
Tuntum or Sampaio Correa
68%
Draw or Sampaio Correa
83%

Winning margin

Tuntum wins by 2+
4%
Sampaio Correa wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Tuntum 1+ goals
41%
Tuntum 2+ goals
10%
Tuntum 3+ goals
2%
Sampaio Correa 1+ goals
68%
Sampaio Correa 2+ goals
32%
Sampaio Correa 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tuntum (draw refunded)
25%
Sampaio Correa (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tuntum at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Sampaio Correa away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tuntum attack 0.71 + Sampaio Correa defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.52

Sampaio Correa attack 1.00 + Tuntum defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Tuntum scores more
17%
level
32%
Sampaio Correa scores more
51%

Sampaio Correa at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sampaio Correa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #608: Tuntum 0–1 Sampaio Correa

Sampaio Correa beat Tuntum 1-0 in League #608 on January 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Rafael Seabra in Tuntum, Maranhão.