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Sampaio Correa vs Tuntum — League #608 2026

Sampaio Correa
Sampaio Correa
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tuntum
Tuntum
3/3/2024League #608League #608 · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Municipal Nhozinho Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sampaio Correa49%
×Draw26%
Tuntum25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sampaio Correa
1.50
Tuntum
1.00

Sampaio Correa creates 50% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Sampaio Correa
1.33
Tuntum
1.33

allows per match

Sampaio Correa
0.67
Tuntum
1.67

finishing

Sampaio Correa+0.00on par
Tuntum+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sampaio Correa ↓

Tuntum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sampaio Correa or draw
75%
Sampaio Correa or Tuntum
74%
Draw or Tuntum
51%

Winning margin

Sampaio Correa wins by 2+
25%
Tuntum wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sampaio Correa 1+ goals
78%
Sampaio Correa 2+ goals
44%
Sampaio Correa 3+ goals
19%
Tuntum 1+ goals
63%
Tuntum 2+ goals
26%
Tuntum 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sampaio Correa (draw refunded)
66%
Tuntum (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sampaio Correa at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Tuntum away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sampaio Correa attack 1.33 + Tuntum defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Tuntum attack 1.33 + Sampaio Correa defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sampaio Correa scores more
49%
level
26%
Tuntum scores more
25%

Sampaio Correa at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sampaio Correa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #608: Sampaio Correa 2–0 Tuntum

Sampaio Correa beat Tuntum 2-0 in League #608 on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Nhozinho Santos in São Luís, Maranhão.