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Tunari vs CSA Steaua Bucureşti — Liga II 2018

Tunari
Tunari
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
5/3/2024Liga IILiga II · Relegation Round - 6Centrul de Fotbal Buftea Teren Natural

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Tunari26%
×Draw26%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tunari
1.03
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.51

CSA Steaua Bucureşti creates 47% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 72 away

creates per match

Tunari
0.89
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.46

allows per match

Tunari
1.56
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.17

finishing

Tunari+0.00on par
CSA Steaua Bucureşti+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tunari ↓

CSA Steaua Bucureşti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tunari or draw
52%
Tunari or CSA Steaua Bucureşti
74%
Draw or CSA Steaua Bucureşti
74%

Winning margin

Tunari wins by 2+
10%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Tunari 1+ goals
64%
Tunari 2+ goals
28%
Tunari 3+ goals
9%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti 1+ goals
78%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti 2+ goals
44%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Tunari (draw refunded)
35%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tunari at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.56 · 27 matches

CSA Steaua Bucureşti away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.17 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tunari attack 0.89 + CSA Steaua Bucureşti defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.03

CSA Steaua Bucureşti attack 1.46 + Tunari defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tunari scores more
26%
level
26%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti scores more
48%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "CSA Steaua Bucureşti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tunari vs CSA Steaua Bucureşti

CSA Steaua Bucureşti beat Tunari 2-1 in Liga II on May 3, 2024.

The match was played at Centrul de Fotbal Buftea Teren Natural in Buftea.