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CSA Steaua Bucureşti vs Tunari — Liga II 2018

CSA Steaua Bucureşti
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Tunari
Tunari
3/16/2024Liga IILiga II · Round 19Stadionul Steaua

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

CSA Steaua Bucureşti56%
×Draw23%
Tunari21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.80
Tunari
1.02

CSA Steaua Bucureşti creates 76% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 26 away

creates per match

CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.75
Tunari
1.08

allows per match

CSA Steaua Bucureşti
0.97
Tunari
1.85

finishing

CSA Steaua Bucureşti+0.00on par
Tunari+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSA Steaua Bucureşti ↓

Tunari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

CSA Steaua Bucureşti or draw
79%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti or Tunari
77%
Draw or Tunari
44%

Winning margin

CSA Steaua Bucureşti wins by 2+
31%
Tunari wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

CSA Steaua Bucureşti 1+ goals
83%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti 2+ goals
54%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti 3+ goals
27%
Tunari 1+ goals
64%
Tunari 2+ goals
27%
Tunari 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

CSA Steaua Bucureşti (draw refunded)
72%
Tunari (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSA Steaua Bucureşti at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.97 · 71 matches

Tunari away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSA Steaua Bucureşti attack 1.75 + Tunari defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.80

Tunari attack 1.08 + CSA Steaua Bucureşti defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

CSA Steaua Bucureşti scores more
56%
level
23%
Tunari scores more
21%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "CSA Steaua Bucureşti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: CSA Steaua Bucureşti 2–1 Tunari

CSA Steaua Bucureşti beat Tunari 2-1 in Liga II on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Steaua in București.