TSV St. Johann 1–3 Neumarkt: Result & Stats

TSV St. Johann

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Neumarkt

3/28/2014

Regionalliga - West · Round 19Sportplatz St. Johann

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

TSV St. Johann69%

×Draw17%

Neumarkt14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TSV St. JohannExpected goals in this matchNeumarkt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.61

1.09

TSV St. Johann

2.61

Neumarkt

1.09

TSV St. Johann creates 139% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 6 away

1.89

creates per match

0.83

1.36

allows per match

3.33

creates per match

TSV St. Johann

1.89

Neumarkt

0.83

allows per match

TSV St. Johann

1.36

Neumarkt

3.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TSV St. Johann+0.00on par

Neumarkt+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TSV St. Johann ↓

Neumarkt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

TSV St. Johann or draw

86%

TSV St. Johann or Neumarkt

83%

Draw or Neumarkt

31%

Winning margin

TSV St. Johann wins by 2+

48%

Neumarkt wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

TSV St. Johann 1+ goals

93%

TSV St. Johann 2+ goals

73%

TSV St. Johann 3+ goals

47%

Neumarkt 1+ goals

66%

Neumarkt 2+ goals

30%

Neumarkt 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

TSV St. Johann (draw refunded)

83%

Neumarkt (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TSV St. Johann at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.36 · 64 matches

Neumarkt away — creates 0.83, concedes 3.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TSV St. Johann attack 1.89 + Neumarkt defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.61

Neumarkt attack 0.83 + TSV St. Johann defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

TSV St. Johann scores more

69%

level

17%

Neumarkt scores more

14%

TSV St. Johann at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "TSV St. Johann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff