Neumarkt 3–0 TSV St. Johann: Result & Stats

Neumarkt

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

TSV St. Johann

C. Hübl 90+2'

P. Mayer 70'

G. Gottfried 42'

9/19/2014

Regionalliga - West · Round 10Sportplatz Neumarkt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Neumarkt42%

×Draw24%

TSV St. Johann34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NeumarktExpected goals in this matchTSV St. Johann

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.41

Neumarkt

1.61

TSV St. Johann

1.41

Neumarkt creates 14% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 34 away

1.25

creates per match

1.06

1.75

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Neumarkt

1.25

TSV St. Johann

1.06

allows per match

Neumarkt

1.75

TSV St. Johann

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Neumarkt+0.00on par

TSV St. Johann+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neumarkt ↓

TSV St. Johann →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Neumarkt or draw

66%

Neumarkt or TSV St. Johann

76%

Draw or TSV St. Johann

58%

Winning margin

Neumarkt wins by 2+

21%

TSV St. Johann wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Neumarkt 1+ goals

80%

Neumarkt 2+ goals

48%

Neumarkt 3+ goals

22%

TSV St. Johann 1+ goals

76%

TSV St. Johann 2+ goals

41%

TSV St. Johann 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Neumarkt (draw refunded)

56%

TSV St. Johann (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neumarkt at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

TSV St. Johann away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.97 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neumarkt attack 1.25 + TSV St. Johann defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.61

TSV St. Johann attack 1.06 + Neumarkt defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Neumarkt scores more

42%

level

24%

TSV St. Johann scores more

34%

Neumarkt at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Neumarkt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

F. Stöllinger← I. Enzenberger

42'

G. Gottfried

52'

T. Klammer← R. Pertl

67'

M. Krimbacher← C. Echefu

70'

P. Mayer

80'

P. Urbanek← P. Mayer

80'

T. Kendlbacher← M. Srećo

90+2'

P. Holzer← C. Hübl

90+2'

C. Hübl

Neumarkt

TSV

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Mayer

⚽

▼

Hübl

41'▲F. Stöllinger←▼I. Enzenberger

80'▲P. Urbanek←▼P. Mayer

90+2'▲P. Holzer←▼C. Hübl

Neumarkt substitutes

StöllingerUrbanekHolzerLaglerWeber

52'▲T. Klammer←▼R. Pertl

67'▲M. Krimbacher←▼C. Echefu

80'▲T. Kendlbacher←▼M. Srećo

TSV St. Johann substitutes

KlammerKrimbacherKendlbacherHetteggerBeran