TSV St. Johann 4–0 Neumarkt: Result & Stats

TSV St. Johann

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Neumarkt

4/1/2016

Regionalliga - West · Round 20Sportplatz St. Johann

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

TSV St. Johann67%

×Draw18%

Neumarkt16%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TSV St. JohannExpected goals in this matchNeumarkt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

1.13

TSV St. Johann

2.50

Neumarkt

1.13

TSV St. Johann creates 121% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 6 away

1.67

creates per match

0.83

1.42

allows per match

3.33

creates per match

TSV St. Johann

1.67

Neumarkt

0.83

allows per match

TSV St. Johann

1.42

Neumarkt

3.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TSV St. Johann+0.00on par

Neumarkt+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TSV St. Johann ↓

Neumarkt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

TSV St. Johann or draw

84%

TSV St. Johann or Neumarkt

82%

Draw or Neumarkt

33%

Winning margin

TSV St. Johann wins by 2+

45%

Neumarkt wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

TSV St. Johann 1+ goals

92%

TSV St. Johann 2+ goals

71%

TSV St. Johann 3+ goals

45%

Neumarkt 1+ goals

68%

Neumarkt 2+ goals

31%

Neumarkt 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

TSV St. Johann (draw refunded)

81%

Neumarkt (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TSV St. Johann at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.42 · 36 matches

Neumarkt away — creates 0.83, concedes 3.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TSV St. Johann attack 1.67 + Neumarkt defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.50

Neumarkt attack 0.83 + TSV St. Johann defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

TSV St. Johann scores more

67%

level

18%

Neumarkt scores more

16%

TSV St. Johann at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "TSV St. Johann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff