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TSV Hartberg vs Ried — Bundesliga 2018

TSV Hartberg
TSV Hartberg
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ried
Ried
L. Fridrikas 56'
E. Havel 22' (pen)
11/22/2025BundesligaBundesliga · Round 14Stadion Hartberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

TSV Hartberg39%
×Draw26%
Ried35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TSV Hartberg
1.36
Ried
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

TSV Hartberg
1.07
Ried
1.11

allows per match

TSV Hartberg
1.47
Ried
1.65

finishing

TSV Hartberg+0.16scores more
Ried-0.49scores less

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TSV Hartberg ↓

Ried →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

TSV Hartberg or draw
65%
TSV Hartberg or Ried
74%
Draw or Ried
61%

Winning margin

TSV Hartberg wins by 2+
18%
Ried wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

TSV Hartberg 1+ goals
74%
TSV Hartberg 2+ goals
39%
TSV Hartberg 3+ goals
16%
Ried 1+ goals
72%
Ried 2+ goals
37%
Ried 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

TSV Hartberg (draw refunded)
52%
Ried (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TSV Hartberg at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.47 · 13 matches

Ried away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.65 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TSV Hartberg attack 1.07 + Ried defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.36

Ried attack 1.11 + TSV Hartberg defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

TSV Hartberg scores more
39%
level
26%
Ried scores more
35%

TSV Hartberg at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "TSV Hartberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

40
T. HulsmannTSV HartbergTSV Hartberg · G
7.9

Match Events

12'
Nikki Havenaar
22'
E. HavelPenalty
56'
L. Fridrikas↳ E. Havel
60'
Jurgen Heil
60'
Philipp Pomer
67'
Lukas Fridrikas
72'
P. Mijic← L. Fridrikas
74'
J. Scherzer← N. Bajlicz
74'
S. Sane← J. Mayer
84'
Saliou Sané
86'
C. Wernitznig← P. Pomer
90+2'
Ante Bajić
90'
Y. Diarra← J. Heil
90+4'
D. Prokop← E. Havel

Possession

40%TSV

Shots

9TSV

Pass accuracy

47%TSV

Statistics

TSVRied
Overview
40%Possession60%
9Total Shots15
1.69Expected Goals (xG)1.60
3Corners3
10Fouls14
Shots
9Total Shots15
4On Target4
4Off Target6
1Blocked5
6Inside Box11
3Outside Box4
Passing
40%Possession60%
281Total Passes409
207Accurate Passes336
74%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
10Fouls14
2Yellow Cards4
2Offsides3

Bundesliga: TSV Hartberg 2–0 Ried

TSV Hartberg beat Ried 2-0 in Bundesliga on November 22, 2025.

Goals: E. Havel (22' pen), L. Fridrikas (56').

Ried controlled possession (60%) and registered 15 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stadion Hartberg in Hartberg.