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Ried vs TSV Hartberg — Bundesliga 2018

Ried
Ried
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
TSV Hartberg
TSV Hartberg
L. Fridrikas 90'
M. Hoffmann 20'
9/14/2025BundesligaBundesliga · Round 6Innviertel Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Ried51%
×Draw25%
TSV Hartberg25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ried
1.61
TSV Hartberg
1.04

Ried creates 55% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

creates per match

Ried
1.64
TSV Hartberg
0.61

allows per match

Ried
1.48
TSV Hartberg
1.58

finishing

Ried+0.09on par
TSV Hartberg+0.49scores more

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ried ↓

TSV Hartberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ried or draw
75%
Ried or TSV Hartberg
75%
Draw or TSV Hartberg
49%

Winning margin

Ried wins by 2+
27%
TSV Hartberg wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ried 1+ goals
80%
Ried 2+ goals
48%
Ried 3+ goals
22%
TSV Hartberg 1+ goals
65%
TSV Hartberg 2+ goals
28%
TSV Hartberg 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ried (draw refunded)
67%
TSV Hartberg (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ried at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.48 · 11 matches

TSV Hartberg away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.58 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ried attack 1.64 + TSV Hartberg defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.61

TSV Hartberg attack 0.61 + Ried defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ried scores more
51%
level
25%
TSV Hartberg scores more
25%

Ried at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ried will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30
L. FridrikasTSV HartbergTSV Hartberg · F
7.7

Match Events

20'
M. Hoffmann↳ D. Kovacevic
32'
Elias HavelGoal cancelled
56'
Andreas Leitner
58'
Andreas LeitnerCard reviewed
63'
M. Grosse← N. Bajlicz
63'
S. Sane← E. Azkune
71'
Tobias Kainz
76'
Saliou SanéGoal cancelled
76'
J. Golles← T. Kainz
76'
M. Fillafer← D. Kovacevic
77'
Elias Havel
82'
L. Fridrikas← E. Havel
83'
D. Kirnbauer← M. Sollbauer
83'
C. Wernitznig← J. Mayer
87'
Maximilian Fillafer
90'
L. Fridrikas↳ M. Hennig

Possession

59%Ried

Shots

11Ried

Pass accuracy

53%Ried

Statistics

RiedTSV
Overview
59%Possession41%
11Total Shots8
3Corners3
12Fouls12
Shots
11Total Shots8
0On Target4
9Off Target2
2Blocked2
8Inside Box5
3Outside Box3
Passing
59%Possession41%
434Total Passes306
345Accurate Passes211
79%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
12Fouls12
1Yellow Cards3
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Ried vs TSV Hartberg

TSV Hartberg beat Ried 2-0 in Bundesliga on September 14, 2025.

Goals: M. Hoffmann (20'), L. Fridrikas (90').

Ried controlled possession (59%) and registered 11 shots to 8.

The match was played at Innviertel Arena in Ried.