Ried 1–3 TSV Hartberg: Result & Stats | Bundesliga

Ried

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

TSV Hartberg

M. Gragger 72'

D. Prokop 83'

J. Heil 63'

D. Avdijaj 19'

4/8/2023

Bundesliga · Relegation Round - 2josko ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Ried51%

×Draw25%

TSV Hartberg25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RiedExpected goals in this matchTSV Hartberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.04

Ried

1.61

TSV Hartberg

1.04

Ried creates 55% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

1.64

creates per match

0.61

1.48

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Ried

1.64

TSV Hartberg

0.61

allows per match

Ried

1.48

TSV Hartberg

1.58

+0.09on par

finishing

+0.49scores more than expected

finishing

Ried+0.09on par

TSV Hartberg+0.49scores more

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ried ↓

TSV Hartberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Ried or draw

75%

Ried or TSV Hartberg

75%

Draw or TSV Hartberg

49%

Winning margin

Ried wins by 2+

27%

TSV Hartberg wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ried 1+ goals

80%

Ried 2+ goals

48%

Ried 3+ goals

22%

TSV Hartberg 1+ goals

65%

TSV Hartberg 2+ goals

28%

TSV Hartberg 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ried (draw refunded)

67%

TSV Hartberg (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ried at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.48 · 11 matches

TSV Hartberg away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.58 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ried attack 1.64 + TSV Hartberg defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.61

TSV Hartberg attack 0.61 + Ried defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ried scores more

51%

level

25%

TSV Hartberg scores more

25%

Ried at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ried will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

D. Prokop

TSV Hartberg · M

7.7

Match Events

19'

D. Avdijaj

27'

Dominik Frieser

46'

J. Wießmeier← R. Jurišić

46'

M. Gragger← D. Ungar

46'

B. Beganovic← C. Monschein

55'

D. Prokop← D. Avdijaj

63'

J. Heil↳ R. Providence

66'

R. Kriwak← R. Providence

67'

L. Kronberger← D. Madritsch

71'

S. Chabbi← A. Lutovac

72'

M. Gragger

77'

Manuel Pfeifer

80'

Rene Kriwak

83'

D. Prokop↳ D. Frieser

88'

89'

89'

90+4'

90+2'

90+4'

90+2'

90'

M. Karamarko← T. Kainz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RiedTSV

Overview

60%Possession40%

11Total Shots15

3Corners6

18Fouls7

Shots

11Total Shots15

3On Target7

4Off Target5

4Blocked3

5Inside Box8

6Outside Box7

Passing

60%Possession40%

476Total Passes322

350Accurate Passes222

74%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls7

3Yellow Cards6

1Red Cards0

2Offsides3

Bundesliga: Ried 1–3 TSV Hartberg

TSV Hartberg beat Ried 3-1 in Bundesliga on April 8, 2023.

Goals: D. Avdijaj (19'), J. Heil (63'), M. Gragger (72'), D. Prokop (83').

Ried controlled possession (60%) and registered 11 shots to 15.

The match was played at josko ARENA in Ried Im Innkreis.

Ried vs TSV Hartberg — Bundesliga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Bundesliga: Ried 1–3 TSV Hartberg