TSV Hartberg 1–2 Admira Wacker: Result & Stats

TSV Hartberg

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Admira Wacker

T. Kainz 51'

S. Surdanovic 41'

R. Kerschbaum 13' (pen)

4/16/2022

Bundesliga · Relegation Round - 5PROfertil ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

TSV Hartberg43%

×Draw25%

Admira Wacker33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TSV HartbergExpected goals in this matchAdmira Wacker

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.33

TSV Hartberg

1.55

Admira Wacker

1.33

TSV Hartberg creates 17% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 62 away

1.31

creates per match

1.11

1.54

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

TSV Hartberg

1.31

Admira Wacker

1.11

allows per match

TSV Hartberg

1.54

Admira Wacker

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TSV Hartberg+0.00on par

Admira Wacker+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TSV Hartberg ↓

Admira Wacker →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

TSV Hartberg or draw

67%

TSV Hartberg or Admira Wacker

75%

Draw or Admira Wacker

57%

Winning margin

TSV Hartberg wins by 2+

21%

Admira Wacker wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

TSV Hartberg 1+ goals

79%

TSV Hartberg 2+ goals

46%

TSV Hartberg 3+ goals

20%

Admira Wacker 1+ goals

74%

Admira Wacker 2+ goals

38%

Admira Wacker 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

TSV Hartberg (draw refunded)

57%

Admira Wacker (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TSV Hartberg at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.54 · 129 matches

Admira Wacker away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.79 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TSV Hartberg attack 1.31 + Admira Wacker defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.55

Admira Wacker attack 1.11 + TSV Hartberg defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

TSV Hartberg scores more

43%

level

25%

Admira Wacker scores more

33%

TSV Hartberg at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "TSV Hartberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Leitner

Admira Wacker · G

7.9

Match Events

13'

R. KerschbaumPenalty

14'

Dario Tadić

23'

Y. Brugger← S. Bauer

26'

Roman Kerschbaum

41'

S. Surdanovic↳ M. Mustapha

46'

N. Niemann← T. Rotter

51'

T. Kainz↳ J. Lemmerer

56'

Noel Niemann

61'

Michael Steinwender

68'

S. Paintsil← J. Lemmerer

73'

W. Vorsager← M. Mustapha

73'

A. Gattermayer← J. Vodháněl

75'

J. Heil← T. Kainz

77'

80'

85'

89'

90+1'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TSVAdmira

Overview

62%Possession38%

12Total Shots12

7Corners3

16Fouls15

Shots

12Total Shots12

7On Target2

3Off Target3

2Blocked7

11Inside Box10

1Outside Box2

Passing

62%Possession38%

475Total Passes299

367Accurate Passes181

77%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

16Fouls15

5Yellow Cards4

0Offsides2