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TSV Hartberg vs Admira Wacker — Bundesliga 2018

TSV Hartberg
TSV Hartberg
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Admira Wacker
Admira Wacker
J. Heil 63'
J. Vodháněl 44'
2/13/2022BundesligaBundesliga · Round 19PROfertil ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

TSV Hartberg43%
×Draw25%
Admira Wacker33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TSV Hartberg
1.55
Admira Wacker
1.33

TSV Hartberg creates 17% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 62 away

creates per match

TSV Hartberg
1.31
Admira Wacker
1.11

allows per match

TSV Hartberg
1.54
Admira Wacker
1.79

finishing

TSV Hartberg+0.00on par
Admira Wacker+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TSV Hartberg ↓

Admira Wacker →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

TSV Hartberg or draw
67%
TSV Hartberg or Admira Wacker
75%
Draw or Admira Wacker
57%

Winning margin

TSV Hartberg wins by 2+
21%
Admira Wacker wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

TSV Hartberg 1+ goals
79%
TSV Hartberg 2+ goals
46%
TSV Hartberg 3+ goals
20%
Admira Wacker 1+ goals
74%
Admira Wacker 2+ goals
38%
Admira Wacker 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

TSV Hartberg (draw refunded)
57%
Admira Wacker (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TSV Hartberg at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.54 · 129 matches

Admira Wacker away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.79 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TSV Hartberg attack 1.31 + Admira Wacker defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.55

Admira Wacker attack 1.11 + TSV Hartberg defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

TSV Hartberg scores more
43%
level
25%
Admira Wacker scores more
33%

TSV Hartberg at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "TSV Hartberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
T. KainzTSV HartbergTSV Hartberg · M
7.7

Match Events

44'
J. Vodháněl
46'
Youba Diarra
51'
Jan Vodhanel
58'
D. Tadić← O. Aydın
58'
N. Niemann← Y. Diarra
60'
Roman Kerschbaum
63'
J. Heil↳ P. Farkas
71'
Patrick Farkas
78'
S. Major← S. Zwierschitz
78'
A. Gattermayer← S. Surdanovic
85'
J. Lemmerer← P. Sturm

Possession

54%TSV

Shots

9TSV

Pass accuracy

50%TSV

Statistics

TSVAdmira
Overview
54%Possession46%
9Total Shots14
2Corners10
19Fouls23
Shots
9Total Shots14
3On Target5
5Off Target8
1Blocked1
5Inside Box10
4Outside Box4
Passing
54%Possession46%
381Total Passes325
285Accurate Passes240
75%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
19Fouls23
2Yellow Cards2
0Offsides2

Bundesliga: TSV Hartberg 1–1 Admira Wacker

TSV Hartberg and Admira Wacker drew 1-1 in Bundesliga on February 13, 2022.

Goals: J. Vodháněl (44'), J. Heil (63').

TSV Hartberg controlled possession (54%) and registered 9 shots to 14.

The match was played at PROfertil ARENA in Hartberg.