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Admira Wacker vs TSV Hartberg — Bundesliga 2018

Admira Wacker
Admira Wacker
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
TSV Hartberg
TSV Hartberg
M. Mustapha 90+2'
S. Paintsil 75'
D. Tadić 33'
J. Heil 23'
4/23/2022BundesligaBundesliga · Relegation Round - 6BSFZ-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Admira Wacker35%
×Draw25%
TSV Hartberg40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Admira Wacker
1.38
TSV Hartberg
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 126 away

creates per match

Admira Wacker
1.05
TSV Hartberg
1.40

allows per match

Admira Wacker
1.59
TSV Hartberg
1.71

finishing

Admira Wacker+0.00on par
TSV Hartberg+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Admira Wacker ↓

TSV Hartberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Admira Wacker or draw
60%
Admira Wacker or TSV Hartberg
75%
Draw or TSV Hartberg
65%

Winning margin

Admira Wacker wins by 2+
16%
TSV Hartberg wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Admira Wacker 1+ goals
75%
Admira Wacker 2+ goals
40%
Admira Wacker 3+ goals
16%
TSV Hartberg 1+ goals
78%
TSV Hartberg 2+ goals
44%
TSV Hartberg 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Admira Wacker (draw refunded)
46%
TSV Hartberg (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Admira Wacker at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.59 · 59 matches

TSV Hartberg away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.71 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Admira Wacker attack 1.05 + TSV Hartberg defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.38

TSV Hartberg attack 1.40 + Admira Wacker defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Admira Wacker scores more
35%
level
25%
TSV Hartberg scores more
40%

TSV Hartberg at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "TSV Hartberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
A. LeitnerAdmira WackerAdmira Wacker · G
7.3

Match Events

23'
J. Heil
30'
Stephan Zwierschitz
33'
D. Tadić
35'
Stephan Zwierschitz
35'
Stephan Zwierschitz
46'
J. Ganda← J. Vodháněl
46'
A. Gattermayer← S. Surdanovic
46'
Luan← T. Ebner
60'
D. Starkl← J. Ganda
70'
M. Horvat← J. Heil
70'
S. Paintsil← N. Niemann
70'
J. Lemmerer← D. Tadić
72'
Lukas Malicsek
73'
I. Elmkies← W. Vorsager
75'
S. Paintsil
78'
Seth PaintsilGoal confirmed
82'
P. Erhardt← M. Steinwender
89'
T. Kofler← C. Klem
90+2'
M. Mustapha↳ A. Gattermayer

Possession

33%Admira

Shots

9Admira

Pass accuracy

44%Admira

Statistics

AdmiraTSV
Overview
33%Possession67%
9Total Shots20
4Corners5
11Fouls14
Shots
9Total Shots20
3On Target9
4Off Target5
2Blocked6
6Inside Box14
3Outside Box6
Passing
33%Possession67%
277Total Passes566
188Accurate Passes486
68%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
6Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls14
3Yellow Cards0
1Red Cards0
0Offsides5

Bundesliga: Admira Wacker 1–3 TSV Hartberg

TSV Hartberg beat Admira Wacker 3-1 in Bundesliga on April 23, 2022.

Goals: J. Heil (23'), D. Tadić (33'), S. Paintsil (75'), M. Mustapha (90+2').

TSV Hartberg controlled possession (67%) and registered 20 shots to 9.

The match was played at BSFZ-Arena in Maria Enzersdorf.