Tsarsko Selo 1–2 CSKA 1948: Result & Stats

Tsarsko Selo

FT

1 – 2

CSKA 1948

7/29/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Tsarsko selo Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Tsarsko Selo63%

×Draw21%

CSKA 194816%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tsarsko SeloExpected goals in this matchCSKA 1948

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

0.88

Tsarsko Selo

1.97

CSKA 1948

0.88

Tsarsko Selo creates 124% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 13 away

2.17

creates per match

0.92

0.83

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Tsarsko Selo

2.17

CSKA 1948

0.92

allows per match

Tsarsko Selo

0.83

CSKA 1948

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par

CSKA 1948+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tsarsko Selo ↓

CSKA 1948 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Tsarsko Selo or draw

84%

Tsarsko Selo or CSKA 1948

79%

Draw or CSKA 1948

37%

Winning margin

Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+

38%

CSKA 1948 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals

86%

Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals

58%

Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals

31%

CSKA 1948 1+ goals

59%

CSKA 1948 2+ goals

22%

CSKA 1948 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)

80%

CSKA 1948 (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tsarsko Selo at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

CSKA 1948 away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tsarsko Selo attack 2.17 + CSKA 1948 defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.97

CSKA 1948 attack 0.92 + Tsarsko Selo defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Tsarsko Selo scores more

63%

level

21%

CSKA 1948 scores more

16%

Tsarsko Selo at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Tsarsko Selo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff