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CSKA 1948 vs Tsarsko Selo — First League 2026

CSKA 1948
CSKA 1948
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Tsarsko Selo
Tsarsko Selo
G. Rusev 74' (pen)
P. Louka 23' (OG)
D. Kostadinov 67'
2/14/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 17Stadion Vasil Levski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

CSKA 194850%
×Draw27%
Tsarsko Selo23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA 1948
1.43
Tsarsko Selo
0.86

CSKA 1948 creates 66% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 48 away

creates per match

CSKA 1948
1.51
Tsarsko Selo
0.69

allows per match

CSKA 1948
1.03
Tsarsko Selo
1.35

finishing

CSKA 1948+0.00on par
Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA 1948 ↓

Tsarsko Selo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

CSKA 1948 or draw
77%
CSKA 1948 or Tsarsko Selo
73%
Draw or Tsarsko Selo
50%

Winning margin

CSKA 1948 wins by 2+
25%
Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

CSKA 1948 1+ goals
76%
CSKA 1948 2+ goals
42%
CSKA 1948 3+ goals
17%
Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals
58%
Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals
21%
Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

CSKA 1948 (draw refunded)
69%
Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA 1948 at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.03 · 104 matches

Tsarsko Selo away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.35 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA 1948 attack 1.51 + Tsarsko Selo defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.43

Tsarsko Selo attack 0.69 + CSKA 1948 defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

CSKA 1948 scores more
50%
level
27%
Tsarsko Selo scores more
23%

CSKA 1948 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "CSKA 1948 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
Sasho Aleksandrov
23'
P. LoukaOwn goal
26'
Dylan Mertens
46'
M. Kavdanski← L. Pedro
55'
Ivaylo Klimentov
66'
H. Popadiyn← P. Louka
66'
E. Manev← I. Markov
67'
D. Kostadinov
71'
A. Bastunov← D. Aleksandrov
74'
G. RusevPenalty
76'
Serkan Ussein
79'
D. Mitkov← I. Klimentov
85'
Lachezar Baltanov
87'
Angel Lyaskov
87'
D. Pirgov← G. Rusev
90+3'
L. Nganioni← R. Daskalov
90+3'
H. Denkov← Anderson

Possession

54%CSKA

Shots

9CSKA

Statistics

CSKATsarsko
Overview
54%Possession46%
9Total Shots6
6Corners2
18Fouls15
Shots
9Total Shots6
5On Target2
4Off Target4
Passing
54%Possession46%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
18Fouls15
4Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
4Offsides4

First League: CSKA 1948 2–1 Tsarsko Selo

CSKA 1948 beat Tsarsko Selo 2-1 in First League on February 14, 2021.

Goals: P. Louka (23' o.g.), D. Kostadinov (67'), G. Rusev (74' pen).

CSKA 1948 controlled possession (54%) and registered 9 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stadion Vasil Levski in Sofia.