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CSKA 1948 vs Tsarsko Selo — First League 2026

CSKA 1948
CSKA 1948
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tsarsko Selo
Tsarsko Selo
Galin Ivanov 29'
9/25/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 9Stadion Vasil Levski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

CSKA 194850%
×Draw27%
Tsarsko Selo23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA 1948
1.43
Tsarsko Selo
0.86

CSKA 1948 creates 66% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 48 away

creates per match

CSKA 1948
1.51
Tsarsko Selo
0.69

allows per match

CSKA 1948
1.03
Tsarsko Selo
1.35

finishing

CSKA 1948+0.00on par
Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA 1948 ↓

Tsarsko Selo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

CSKA 1948 or draw
77%
CSKA 1948 or Tsarsko Selo
73%
Draw or Tsarsko Selo
50%

Winning margin

CSKA 1948 wins by 2+
25%
Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

CSKA 1948 1+ goals
76%
CSKA 1948 2+ goals
42%
CSKA 1948 3+ goals
17%
Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals
58%
Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals
21%
Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

CSKA 1948 (draw refunded)
69%
Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA 1948 at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.03 · 104 matches

Tsarsko Selo away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.35 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA 1948 attack 1.51 + Tsarsko Selo defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.43

Tsarsko Selo attack 0.69 + CSKA 1948 defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

CSKA 1948 scores more
50%
level
27%
Tsarsko Selo scores more
23%

CSKA 1948 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "CSKA 1948 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
Hristo Popadiyn
29'
Galin Ivanov
46'
Deyan Lozev
46'
M. Kavdanski← V. Vasilev
46'
A. Stevanović← M. Jokić
46'
Lucas Dias← P. Atanasov
60'
M. Angelov← G. Missi Mezu
66'
Alen Stevanović
67'
L. Marin← K. Stoyanov
68'
D. Pirgov← I. Klimentov
70'
Deyan Lozev
70'
Deyan Lozev
76'
M. Topuzov← A. Bastunov
76'
D. Angelov← G. Rusev
84'
Denislav Aleksandrov
89'
B. Tomovski← N. Kolev

Possession

55%CSKA

Shots

8CSKA

Statistics

CSKATsarsko
Overview
55%Possession45%
8Total Shots3
6Corners9
12Fouls14
Shots
8Total Shots3
4On Target1
4Off Target2
Passing
55%Possession45%
Goalkeeping
3Saves8
Discipline
12Fouls14
2Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0

First League: CSKA 1948 1–0 Tsarsko Selo

CSKA 1948 beat Tsarsko Selo 1-0 in First League on September 25, 2021.

Goals: Galin Ivanov (29').

CSKA 1948 controlled possession (55%) and registered 8 shots to 3.

The match was played at Stadion Vasil Levski in Sofia.