Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Trygg/Lade vs Surnadal — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Trygg/Lade
Trygg/Lade
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Surnadal
Surnadal
4/6/20243. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 1OBOS Kunstgressbane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Trygg/Lade70%
×Draw16%
Surnadal14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trygg/Lade
2.77
Surnadal
1.19

Trygg/Lade creates 133% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Trygg/Lade
3.00
Surnadal
1.23

allows per match

Trygg/Lade
1.15
Surnadal
2.54

finishing

Trygg/Lade+0.00on par
Surnadal+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trygg/Lade ↓

Surnadal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Trygg/Lade or draw
86%
Trygg/Lade or Surnadal
84%
Draw or Surnadal
30%

Winning margin

Trygg/Lade wins by 2+
49%
Surnadal wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Trygg/Lade 1+ goals
94%
Trygg/Lade 2+ goals
76%
Trygg/Lade 3+ goals
51%
Surnadal 1+ goals
70%
Surnadal 2+ goals
33%
Surnadal 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Trygg/Lade (draw refunded)
83%
Surnadal (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trygg/Lade at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Surnadal away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trygg/Lade attack 3.00 + Surnadal defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.77

Surnadal attack 1.23 + Trygg/Lade defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Trygg/Lade scores more
70%
level
16%
Surnadal scores more
14%

Trygg/Lade at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Trygg/Lade will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 4: Trygg/Lade 4–0 Surnadal

Trygg/Lade beat Surnadal 4-0 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on April 6, 2024.

The match was played at OBOS Kunstgressbane in Trondheim.