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Surnadal vs Trygg/Lade — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Surnadal
Surnadal
FT
2 – 5
HT: 2 – 1
Trygg/Lade
Trygg/Lade
8/17/20243. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 17Syltøran stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Surnadal31%
×Draw20%
Trygg/Lade48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Surnadal
1.81
Trygg/Lade
2.27

Trygg/Lade creates 25% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Surnadal
2.31
Trygg/Lade
2.08

allows per match

Surnadal
2.46
Trygg/Lade
1.31

finishing

Surnadal+0.00on par
Trygg/Lade+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Surnadal ↓

Trygg/Lade →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Surnadal or draw
52%
Surnadal or Trygg/Lade
80%
Draw or Trygg/Lade
69%

Winning margin

Surnadal wins by 2+
16%
Trygg/Lade wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Surnadal 1+ goals
84%
Surnadal 2+ goals
54%
Surnadal 3+ goals
27%
Trygg/Lade 1+ goals
90%
Trygg/Lade 2+ goals
66%
Trygg/Lade 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Surnadal (draw refunded)
39%
Trygg/Lade (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Surnadal at home — creates 2.31, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

Trygg/Lade away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Surnadal attack 2.31 + Trygg/Lade defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.81

Trygg/Lade attack 2.08 + Surnadal defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Surnadal scores more
31%
level
20%
Trygg/Lade scores more
48%

Trygg/Lade at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Trygg/Lade will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 4: Surnadal 2–5 Trygg/Lade

Trygg/Lade beat Surnadal 5-2 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at Syltøran stadion in Surnadal.