Surnadal 1–1 Trygg/Lade: Result & Stats

Surnadal

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Trygg/Lade

9/6/2025

3. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 19Syltøran stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Surnadal23%

×Draw18%

Trygg/Lade59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SurnadalExpected goals in this matchTrygg/Lade

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

2.81

Surnadal

1.73

Trygg/Lade

2.81

Trygg/Lade creates 62% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

2.00

creates per match

2.62

3.00

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Surnadal

2.00

Trygg/Lade

2.62

allows per match

Surnadal

3.00

Trygg/Lade

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Surnadal+0.00on par

Trygg/Lade+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Surnadal ↓

Trygg/Lade →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–34%

0–43%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–27%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Surnadal or draw

41%

Surnadal or Trygg/Lade

82%

Draw or Trygg/Lade

77%

Winning margin

Surnadal wins by 2+

11%

Trygg/Lade wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Surnadal 1+ goals

82%

Surnadal 2+ goals

52%

Surnadal 3+ goals

25%

Trygg/Lade 1+ goals

94%

Trygg/Lade 2+ goals

76%

Trygg/Lade 3+ goals

52%

Draw no bet

Surnadal (draw refunded)

28%

Trygg/Lade (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Surnadal at home — creates 2.00, concedes 3.00 · 13 matches

Trygg/Lade away — creates 2.62, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Surnadal attack 2.00 + Trygg/Lade defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.73

Trygg/Lade attack 2.62 + Surnadal defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Surnadal scores more

23%

level

18%

Trygg/Lade scores more

59%

Trygg/Lade at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Trygg/Lade will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff