Tromso 2–1 Stabaek: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Tromso

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Stabaek

V. Erlien 35' (pen)

Y. Paintsil 15'

K. Høgh 7'

6/25/2023

Eliteserien · Round 11Romssa Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Tromso50%

×Draw22%

Stabaek28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TromsoExpected goals in this matchStabaek

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.41

Tromso

1.96

Stabaek

1.41

Tromso creates 39% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 7 away

1.78

creates per match

1.63

1.19

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Tromso

1.78

Stabaek

1.63

allows per match

Tromso

1.19

Stabaek

2.15

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

-0.63scores less than expected

finishing

Tromso-0.16scores less

Stabaek-0.63scores less

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromso ↓

Stabaek →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Tromso or draw

72%

Tromso or Stabaek

78%

Draw or Stabaek

50%

Winning margin

Tromso wins by 2+

29%

Stabaek wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Tromso 1+ goals

86%

Tromso 2+ goals

58%

Tromso 3+ goals

31%

Stabaek 1+ goals

76%

Stabaek 2+ goals

41%

Stabaek 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Tromso (draw refunded)

64%

Stabaek (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromso at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.19 · 42 matches

Stabaek away — creates 1.63, concedes 2.15 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromso attack 1.78 + Stabaek defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.96

Stabaek attack 1.63 + Tromso defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tromso scores more

50%

level

22%

Stabaek scores more

28%

Tromso at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tromso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

C. Øyvann

Tromso · D

7.5

Match Events

7'

K. Høgh

15'

Y. Paintsil↳ R. Jenssen

29'

Simen Wangberg

33'

Casper ÖyvannPenalty confirmed

35'

V. ErlienPenalty

40'

J. Romsaas← K. Antonsen

46'

N. Walstad← A. Andresen

66'

H. Geelmuyden← M. Bakenga

66'

S. Ottesen← T. Pachonik

71'

M. Traoré← Y. Paintsil

71'

N. Jenssen← S. Wangberg

72'

A. Jenssen← C. Øyvann

82'

K. Kostadinov← F. Haugen

86'

Kasper Høgh

90+2'

T. Hafstad← J. Romsaas

90+2'

M. Koskela← C. Psyché

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TromsoStabaek

Overview

48%Possession52%

15Total Shots8

6Corners3

6Fouls6

Shots

15Total Shots8

6On Target4

7Off Target2

2Blocked2

7Inside Box4

8Outside Box4

Passing

48%Possession52%

536Total Passes565

461Accurate Passes485

86%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

6Fouls6

0Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

0Offsides1

Match Recap: Tromso vs Stabaek

Tromso beat Stabaek 2-1 in Eliteserien on June 25, 2023.

Goals: K. Høgh (7'), Y. Paintsil (15'), V. Erlien (35' pen).

Stabaek controlled possession (52%) and registered 8 shots to 15.

The match was played at Romssa Arena in Tromsø.

Tromso vs Stabaek — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Tromso vs Stabaek