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Stabaek vs Tromso — Eliteserien 2026

Stabaek
Stabaek
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Tromso
Tromso
T. Totland 90'
M. Ebiye 14', 9'
6/14/2021EliteserienEliteserien · Round 7Nadderud Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Stabaek37%
×Draw25%
Tromso37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stabaek
1.39
Tromso
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 38 away

creates per match

Stabaek
1.16
Tromso
1.33

allows per match

Stabaek
1.43
Tromso
1.61

finishing

Stabaek+0.04on par
Tromso-0.01on par

Total goals

Over: 52Under: 4852%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 56No: 4456%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stabaek ↓

Tromso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Stabaek or draw
63%
Stabaek or Tromso
75%
Draw or Tromso
63%

Winning margin

Stabaek wins by 2+
17%
Tromso wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Stabaek 1+ goals
75%
Stabaek 2+ goals
40%
Stabaek 3+ goals
16%
Tromso 1+ goals
75%
Tromso 2+ goals
40%
Tromso 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Stabaek (draw refunded)
50%
Tromso (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stabaek at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.43 · 5 matches

Tromso away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.61 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stabaek attack 1.16 + Tromso defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.39

Tromso attack 1.33 + Stabaek defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Stabaek scores more
37%
level
25%
Tromso scores more
37%

Stabaek at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Stabaek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
M. EbiyeTromsoTromso · F
8.7

Match Events

9'
M. Ebiye
14'
M. Ebiye↳ A. Mikkelsen
35'
S. Wangberg← N. Jenssen
43'
A. Arnarson← L. Nilsen
46'
J. Moe← M. Solheim
57'
K. Kinoshita← K. Kostadinov
70'
D. Berntsen← F. Winther
73'
O. Edvardsen← Y. Amankwah
79'
Oleksiy Khoblenko
90+2'
J. Rothmann← M. Ebiye
90+2'
N. Vesterlund← A. Jenssen
90+2'
M. Andersen← E. Kitolano
90'
T. Totland↳ A. Arnarson

Possession

Stabaek: 59Tromso: 4159%Stabaek

Shots

Stabaek: 13Tromso: 1513Stabaek

Pass accuracy

Stabaek: 82Tromso: 7652%Stabaek

Statistics

StabaekTromso
Overview
59%Possession41%
13Total Shots15
3Corners2
14Fouls18
Shots
13Total Shots15
5On Target8
4Off Target6
4Blocked1
8Inside Box10
5Outside Box5
Passing
59%Possession41%
505Total Passes357
414Accurate Passes271
82%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
Discipline
14Fouls18
1Yellow Cards0
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Stabaek vs Tromso

Tromso beat Stabaek 3-0 in Eliteserien on June 14, 2021.

Goals: M. Ebiye (9', 14'), T. Totland (90').

Stabaek controlled possession (59%) and registered 13 shots to 15.

The match was played at Nadderud Stadion in Bekkestua.