Stabaek 0–1 Tromso: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Stabaek

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tromso

M. Traoré 50'

9/30/2023

Eliteserien · Round 18Nadderud Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Stabaek34%

×Draw25%

Tromso41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StabaekExpected goals in this matchTromso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.51

Stabaek

1.34

Tromso

1.51

Tromso creates 13% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 39 away

1.09

creates per match

1.37

1.65

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Stabaek

1.09

Tromso

1.37

allows per match

Stabaek

1.65

Tromso

1.59

-0.09on par

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Stabaek-0.09on par

Tromso-0.06on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stabaek ↓

Tromso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Stabaek or draw

59%

Stabaek or Tromso

75%

Draw or Tromso

66%

Winning margin

Stabaek wins by 2+

15%

Tromso wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Stabaek 1+ goals

74%

Stabaek 2+ goals

39%

Stabaek 3+ goals

15%

Tromso 1+ goals

78%

Tromso 2+ goals

44%

Tromso 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Stabaek (draw refunded)

45%

Tromso (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stabaek at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.65 · 6 matches

Tromso away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.59 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stabaek attack 1.09 + Tromso defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.34

Tromso attack 1.37 + Stabaek defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Stabaek scores more

34%

level

25%

Tromso scores more

41%

Tromso at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tromso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

J. Gundersen

Tromso · D

8.0

Match Events

16'

Curtis Edwards

19'

Kaloyan Kalinov Kostadinov

46'

O. Veum← K. Pedersen

46'

J. Romsaas← F. Winther

50'

M. Traoré↳ J. Gundersen

59'

M. Bakenga← F. Krogstad

68'

F. Haugen← C. Edwards

70'

J. Hjertø-Dahl← V. Erlien

70'

L. Nordås← M. Traoré

82'

K. Jelacic← R. Vinge

82'

L. Kjerrumgaard← G. Vetti

89'

E. Diouf← Y. Paintsil

90+5'

Jakob Napoleon Romsaas

90+1'

A. Jenssen← S. Opsahl

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StabaekTromso

Overview

57%Possession43%

11Total Shots13

0.70Expected Goals (xG)2.76

4Corners2

6Fouls8

Shots

11Total Shots13

1On Target5

7Off Target4

3Blocked4

8Inside Box9

3Outside Box4

Passing

57%Possession43%

623Total Passes488

531Accurate Passes401

85%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

6Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0