Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tromso vs Stabaek — Eliteserien 2026

Tromso
Tromso
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Stabaek
Stabaek
9/16/2018EliteserienEliteserien · Round 22Alfheim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Tromso50%
×Draw22%
Stabaek28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tromso
1.96
Stabaek
1.40

Tromso creates 40% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 7 away

creates per match

Tromso
1.78
Stabaek
1.63

allows per match

Tromso
1.17
Stabaek
2.15

finishing

Tromso-0.10scores less
Stabaek-0.63scores less

Total goals

Over: 65Under: 3565%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 65No: 3565%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromso ↓

Stabaek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Tromso or draw
72%
Tromso or Stabaek
78%
Draw or Stabaek
50%

Winning margin

Tromso wins by 2+
29%
Stabaek wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tromso 1+ goals
86%
Tromso 2+ goals
58%
Tromso 3+ goals
31%
Stabaek 1+ goals
75%
Stabaek 2+ goals
41%
Stabaek 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Tromso (draw refunded)
65%
Stabaek (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromso at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.17 · 44 matches

Stabaek away — creates 1.63, concedes 2.15 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromso attack 1.78 + Stabaek defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.96

Stabaek attack 1.63 + Tromso defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tromso scores more
50%
level
22%
Stabaek scores more
28%

Tromso at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tromso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
R. HernándezStabaekStabaek · D
8.2

Match Events

9'
Tobias Borchgrevink Borkeeiet
72'
K. Antonsen← M. Bakenga
80'
F. Valenčič← O. Omoijuanfo
86'
O. Valakari← L. Nilsen
86'
E. Bohinen← H. Vetlesen

Possession

Tromso: 55Stabaek: 4555%Tromso

Shots

Tromso: 12Stabaek: 1312Tromso

Pass accuracy

Tromso: 87Stabaek: 8351%Tromso

Statistics

TromsoStabaek
Overview
55%Possession45%
12Total Shots13
3Corners4
8Fouls7
Shots
12Total Shots13
5On Target1
4Off Target8
3Blocked4
9Inside Box3
3Outside Box10
Passing
55%Possession45%
549Total Passes439
479Accurate Passes364
87%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
8Fouls7
0Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
4Offsides0

Eliteserien: Tromso 0–0 Stabaek

Tromso and Stabaek drew 0-0 in Eliteserien on September 16, 2018.

Tromso controlled possession (55%) and registered 12 shots to 13.

The match was played at Alfheim in Tromso.