Tromso 1–0 Rosenborg: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Tromso

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rosenborg

R. Jenssen 4'

11/22/2025

Eliteserien · Round 29Romssa Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Tromso51%

×Draw23%

Rosenborg26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TromsoExpected goals in this matchRosenborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.22

Tromso

1.80

Rosenborg

1.22

Tromso creates 48% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 27 away

1.79

creates per match

1.33

1.11

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Tromso

1.79

Rosenborg

1.33

allows per match

Tromso

1.11

Rosenborg

1.81

-0.01on par

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Tromso-0.01on par

Rosenborg-0.07on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromso ↓

Rosenborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Tromso or draw

74%

Tromso or Rosenborg

77%

Draw or Rosenborg

49%

Winning margin

Tromso wins by 2+

28%

Rosenborg wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Tromso 1+ goals

83%

Tromso 2+ goals

54%

Tromso 3+ goals

27%

Rosenborg 1+ goals

70%

Rosenborg 2+ goals

34%

Rosenborg 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Tromso (draw refunded)

66%

Rosenborg (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromso at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.11 · 32 matches

Rosenborg away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.81 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromso attack 1.79 + Rosenborg defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.80

Rosenborg attack 1.33 + Tromso defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Tromso scores more

51%

level

23%

Rosenborg scores more

26%

Tromso at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Tromso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

T. Guddal

Tromso

7.9

Match Events

4'

R. Jenssen↳ Ieltsin Camoes

25'

29'

34'

54'

62'

A. S. Kinteh← A. Thongla-Iad Warneryd

67'

A. F. Witry← J. Mortensen

68'

I. Fossum← M. Zeidan

72'

D. Braut← Ieltsin Camoes

76'

O. Saeter← J. Reitan-Sunde

87'

A. Mikkelsen← V. Erlien

88'

R. Kristiansen← I. Vadebu

90'

Ulrik Jenssen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TromsoRosenborg

Overview

42%Possession58%

15Total Shots5

1.88Expected Goals (xG)0.46

5Corners2

15Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots5

5On Target0

7Off Target4

3Blocked1

12Inside Box2

3Outside Box3

Passing

42%Possession58%

427Total Passes600

374Accurate Passes518

88%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls10

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0