Rosenborg 4–1 Tromso: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Rosenborg

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Tromso

D. Islamovic 90', 54', 38' (pen), 29'

D. Braut 64'

7/27/2025

Eliteserien · Round 15Lerkendal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Rosenborg47%

×Draw24%

Tromso29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RosenborgExpected goals in this matchTromso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.29

Rosenborg

1.70

Tromso

1.29

Rosenborg creates 32% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 28 away

1.78

creates per match

1.36

1.23

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Rosenborg

1.78

Tromso

1.36

allows per match

Rosenborg

1.23

Tromso

1.62

+0.02on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rosenborg+0.02on par

Tromso+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosenborg ↓

Tromso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Rosenborg or draw

71%

Rosenborg or Tromso

76%

Draw or Tromso

53%

Winning margin

Rosenborg wins by 2+

25%

Tromso wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Rosenborg 1+ goals

82%

Rosenborg 2+ goals

51%

Rosenborg 3+ goals

24%

Tromso 1+ goals

72%

Tromso 2+ goals

37%

Tromso 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Rosenborg (draw refunded)

62%

Tromso (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosenborg at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.23 · 25 matches

Tromso away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.62 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosenborg attack 1.78 + Tromso defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.70

Tromso attack 1.36 + Rosenborg defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rosenborg scores more

47%

level

24%

Tromso scores more

29%

Rosenborg at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rosenborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

39

D. Islamovic

Rosenborg · F

9.9

Match Events

7'

Simen Bolkan Nordli

20'

Abubacarr Kinteh

29'

D. Islamovic↳ E. K. Ceide

38'

D. IslamovicPenalty

54'

D. Islamovic

60'

D. Braut← Ieltsin Camoes

64'

D. Braut↳ V. Erlien

71'

David Edvardsson

71'

N. Holm← E. K. Ceide

72'

U. Jenssen← A. Pereira

72'

H. Larsen← D. Edvardsson

72'

I. Vadebu← A. S. Kinteh

76'

82'

84'

90'

90+3'

H. Sletsjoe← D. Islamovic

90+2'

A. Jenssen← V. Erlien

90'

D. Islamovic

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RosenborgTromso

Overview

48%Possession52%

11Total Shots8

1.79Expected Goals (xG)0.97

4Corners7

12Fouls20

Shots

11Total Shots8

5On Target2

3Off Target4

3Blocked2

8Inside Box5

3Outside Box3

Passing

48%Possession52%

487Total Passes526

423Accurate Passes441

87%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls20

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

2Offsides0

Eliteserien: Rosenborg 4–1 Tromso

Rosenborg beat Tromso 4-1 in Eliteserien on July 27, 2025.

Goals: D. Islamovic (29', 38' pen, 54', 90'), D. Braut (64').

Tromso controlled possession (52%) and registered 8 shots to 11.

The match was played at Lerkendal Stadion in Trondheim.

Rosenborg vs Tromso — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Rosenborg 4–1 Tromso