Rosenborg 1–0 Tromso: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Rosenborg

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tromso

N. Holm 64'

8/4/2024

Eliteserien · Round 17Lerkendal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Rosenborg47%

×Draw24%

Tromso29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RosenborgExpected goals in this matchTromso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.26

Rosenborg

1.68

Tromso

1.26

Rosenborg creates 33% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 29 away

1.74

creates per match

1.34

1.18

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Rosenborg

1.74

Tromso

1.34

allows per match

Rosenborg

1.18

Tromso

1.61

+0.01on par

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Rosenborg+0.01on par

Tromso-0.03on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosenborg ↓

Tromso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Rosenborg or draw

71%

Rosenborg or Tromso

76%

Draw or Tromso

53%

Winning margin

Rosenborg wins by 2+

25%

Tromso wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Rosenborg 1+ goals

81%

Rosenborg 2+ goals

50%

Rosenborg 3+ goals

24%

Tromso 1+ goals

72%

Tromso 2+ goals

36%

Tromso 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Rosenborg (draw refunded)

62%

Tromso (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosenborg at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.18 · 28 matches

Tromso away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.61 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosenborg attack 1.74 + Tromso defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.68

Tromso attack 1.34 + Rosenborg defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rosenborg scores more

47%

level

24%

Tromso scores more

29%

Rosenborg at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rosenborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

J. Haugaard

Tromso · G

8.7

Match Events

9'

Mamadou Barry

29'

Ulrik Jenssen

46'

A. Jenssen← M. Barry

56'

H. Larsen← J. Romsaas

58'

Kent-Are Antonsen

59'

J. Nelson← J. Reitan-Sunde

59'

N. Holm← E. Tagseth

59'

A. Pereira← U. Yttergård Jenssen

64'

N. Holm

70'

Vetle Skjaervik

71'

L. Cornic← Y. Paintsil

71'

L. Nilsen← R. Norheim

72'

S. Väänänen← O. Sæter

80'

Lasse Nilsen

81'

F. Winther← J. Hjertø-Dahl

85'

Marius Sivertsen Broholm

87'

E. Frederiksen← M. Broholm

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RosenborgTromso

Overview

56%Possession44%

25Total Shots6

1.53Expected Goals (xG)0.70

8Corners2

12Fouls10

Shots

25Total Shots6

9On Target2

9Off Target2

7Blocked2

10Inside Box5

15Outside Box1

Passing

56%Possession44%

508Total Passes407

425Accurate Passes322

84%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves8

Discipline

12Fouls10

2Yellow Cards4

0Offsides1