Tromso 2–0 Kristiansund BK: Result & Stats

Tromso

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kristiansund BK

D. Braut 68'

L. O. Larsen 60'

4/11/2026

Eliteserien · Round 4Romssa Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Tromso56%

×Draw22%

Kristiansund BK22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TromsoExpected goals in this matchKristiansund BK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.11

Tromso

1.91

Kristiansund BK

1.11

Tromso creates 72% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 30 away

1.81

creates per match

1.09

1.13

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Tromso

1.81

Kristiansund BK

1.09

allows per match

Tromso

1.13

Kristiansund BK

2.00

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Tromso-0.10scores less

Kristiansund BK-0.06on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromso ↓

Kristiansund BK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Tromso or draw

78%

Tromso or Kristiansund BK

78%

Draw or Kristiansund BK

44%

Winning margin

Tromso wins by 2+

32%

Kristiansund BK wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Tromso 1+ goals

85%

Tromso 2+ goals

57%

Tromso 3+ goals

30%

Kristiansund BK 1+ goals

67%

Kristiansund BK 2+ goals

30%

Kristiansund BK 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Tromso (draw refunded)

72%

Kristiansund BK (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromso at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.13 · 38 matches

Kristiansund BK away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.00 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromso attack 1.81 + Kristiansund BK defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.91

Kristiansund BK attack 1.09 + Tromso defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Tromso scores more

56%

level

22%

Kristiansund BK scores more

22%

Tromso at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Tromso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

I. Vadebu

Tromso · D

8.7

Match Events

40'

Haakon Haugen

59'

Leander Alvheim

60'

L. O. Larsen↳ R. Jenssen

61'

D. Braut← H. Larsen

67'

T. Svendsen← S. Skeide

67'

A. Ronning← S. Kilen

68'

D. Braut↳ J. Haugaard

77'

P. Meliga← M. Isah

80'

T. Nyhammer← L. O. Larsen

80'

S. Innvaer← L. Cornic

89'

H. Magnusson← W. Igor

89'

N. Skuseth← D. Ulvestad

90+4'

J. Nois← R. Jenssen

90+4'

M. Tonnessen← A. Thongla-Iad Warneryd

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TromsoKristiansund

Overview

62%Possession38%

18Total Shots7

1.82Expected Goals (xG)0.74

9Corners0

9Fouls12

Shots

18Total Shots7

5On Target2

9Off Target5

4Blocked0

17Inside Box3

1Outside Box4

Passing

62%Possession38%

608Total Passes384

534Accurate Passes309

88%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

-0.18Goals Prevented-0.18

Discipline

9Fouls12

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0