Kristiansund BK 1–3 Tromso: Result & Stats

Kristiansund BK

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Tromso

R. Corlu 71'

A. S. Kinteh 45'

L. O. Larsen 14'

D. Edvardsson 8'

11/30/2025

Eliteserien · Round 30Kristiansund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Kristiansund BK37%

×Draw25%

Tromso38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kristiansund BKExpected goals in this matchTromso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.48

Kristiansund BK

1.45

Tromso

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 37 away

1.27

creates per match

1.34

1.62

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Kristiansund BK

1.27

Tromso

1.34

allows per match

Kristiansund BK

1.62

Tromso

1.62

-0.07on par

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Kristiansund BK-0.07on par

Tromso-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kristiansund BK ↓

Tromso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Kristiansund BK or draw

62%

Kristiansund BK or Tromso

75%

Draw or Tromso

63%

Winning margin

Kristiansund BK wins by 2+

17%

Tromso wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Kristiansund BK 1+ goals

77%

Kristiansund BK 2+ goals

42%

Kristiansund BK 3+ goals

18%

Tromso 1+ goals

77%

Tromso 2+ goals

43%

Tromso 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Kristiansund BK (draw refunded)

49%

Tromso (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kristiansund BK at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.62 · 30 matches

Tromso away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.62 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kristiansund BK attack 1.27 + Tromso defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.45

Tromso attack 1.34 + Kristiansund BK defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kristiansund BK scores more

37%

level

25%

Tromso scores more

38%

Tromso at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tromso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

D. Edvardsson

Tromso · M

7.9

Match Events

8'

D. Edvardsson↳ I. Vadebu

14'

L. O. Larsen↳ Ieltsin Camoes

32'

Abubacarr Kinteh

35'

Leo Cornic

45'

A. S. Kinteh

46'

H. Haugen← M. Williamsen

63'

S. Kilen← M. Isah

63'

R. Corlu← I. Hoffmann

63'

A. Jenssen← A. S. Kinteh

63'

D. Braut← Ieltsin Camoes

66'

Syver Skeide

71'

R. Corlu↳ S. Kilen

80'

H. Opsahl← S. Skeide

81'

A. Mikkelsen← L. O. Larsen

87'

A. Ronning← D. Tufekcic

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KristiansundTromso

Overview

41%Possession59%

4Total Shots14

0.15Expected Goals (xG)2.85

0Corners4

13Fouls14

Shots

4Total Shots14

2On Target7

1Off Target5

1Blocked2

2Inside Box9

2Outside Box5

Passing

41%Possession59%

438Total Passes623

365Accurate Passes538

83%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides3

Eliteserien: Kristiansund BK 1–3 Tromso

Tromso beat Kristiansund BK 3-1 in Eliteserien on November 30, 2025.

Goals: D. Edvardsson (8'), L. O. Larsen (14'), A. S. Kinteh (45'), R. Corlu (71').

Tromso controlled possession (59%) and registered 14 shots to 4.

The match was played at Kristiansund Stadion in Kristiansund.

Kristiansund BK vs Tromso — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Kristiansund BK 1–3 Tromso