Kristiansund BK 1–0 Tromso: Result & Stats

Kristiansund BK

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tromso

P. Guèye 44'

4/21/2024

Eliteserien · Round 4Nordmøre stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Kristiansund BK37%

×Draw25%

Tromso38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kristiansund BKExpected goals in this matchTromso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.48

Kristiansund BK

1.45

Tromso

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 37 away

1.27

creates per match

1.34

1.62

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Kristiansund BK

1.27

Tromso

1.34

allows per match

Kristiansund BK

1.62

Tromso

1.62

-0.07on par

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Kristiansund BK-0.07on par

Tromso-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kristiansund BK ↓

Tromso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Kristiansund BK or draw

62%

Kristiansund BK or Tromso

75%

Draw or Tromso

63%

Winning margin

Kristiansund BK wins by 2+

17%

Tromso wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Kristiansund BK 1+ goals

77%

Kristiansund BK 2+ goals

42%

Kristiansund BK 3+ goals

18%

Tromso 1+ goals

77%

Tromso 2+ goals

43%

Tromso 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Kristiansund BK (draw refunded)

49%

Tromso (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kristiansund BK at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.62 · 30 matches

Tromso away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.62 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kristiansund BK attack 1.27 + Tromso defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.45

Tromso attack 1.34 + Kristiansund BK defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kristiansund BK scores more

37%

level

25%

Tromso scores more

38%

Tromso at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tromso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

J. Haugaard

Tromso · G

8.9

Match Events

20'

39'

43'

44'

56'

Brynjólfur Darri WillumssonPenalty confirmed

69'

F. Nyenetue← H. Mikaelsson

69'

J. Romsaas← V. Skjærvik

69'

Y. Paintsil← R. Norheim

79'

J. Isaksen← O. Sivertsen

86'

H. Sjåtil← B. Willumsson

86'

M. Johnsgård← L. Nilsen

86'

T. Guddal← S. Opsahl

86'

F. Winther← A. Jenssen

89'

Jesper Isaksen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KristiansundTromso

Overview

46%Possession54%

19Total Shots8

2.81Expected Goals (xG)0.93

5Corners5

4Fouls14

Shots

19Total Shots8

9On Target2

4Off Target5

6Blocked1

17Inside Box5

2Outside Box3

Passing

46%Possession54%

427Total Passes506

348Accurate Passes416

81%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves8

Discipline

4Fouls14

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2

Eliteserien: Kristiansund BK 1–0 Tromso

Kristiansund BK beat Tromso 1-0 in Eliteserien on April 21, 2024.

Goals: P. Guèye (44').

Tromso controlled possession (54%) and registered 8 shots to 19.

The match was played at Nordmøre stadion in Kristiansund.

Kristiansund BK vs Tromso — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Kristiansund BK 1–0 Tromso