Tromso 0–5 Brann: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Tromso

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Brann

M. Haaland 90'

U. Mathisen 50'

K. M. Ingason 37', 22', 19'

4/29/2026

Eliteserien · Round 17Romssa Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

Tromso42%

×Draw24%

Brann34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TromsoExpected goals in this matchBrann

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.40

Tromso

1.60

Brann

1.40

Tromso creates 14% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 31 away

1.80

creates per match

1.65

1.16

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Tromso

1.80

Brann

1.65

allows per match

Tromso

1.16

Brann

1.40

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

Tromso-0.17scores less

Brann+0.16scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromso ↓

Brann →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Tromso or draw

66%

Tromso or Brann

76%

Draw or Brann

58%

Winning margin

Tromso wins by 2+

21%

Brann wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Tromso 1+ goals

80%

Tromso 2+ goals

47%

Tromso 3+ goals

22%

Brann 1+ goals

75%

Brann 2+ goals

41%

Brann 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Tromso (draw refunded)

56%

Brann (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromso at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.16 · 40 matches

Brann away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.40 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromso attack 1.80 + Brann defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.60

Brann attack 1.65 + Tromso defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tromso scores more

42%

level

24%

Brann scores more

34%

Tromso at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tromso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

K. M. Ingason

Brann · M

10.0

Match Events

19'

K. M. Ingason

22'

K. M. Ingason

27'

Heine Asen Larsen

37'

K. M. Ingason↳ D. De Roeve

46'

D. Braut← H. Larsen

46'

V. Skjaervik← A. S. Kinteh

46'

S. Innvaer← A. Thongla-Iad Warneryd

46'

J. Soltvedt← D. De Roeve

50'

U. Mathisen

61'

D. Mbacke← F. Knudsen

61'

N. Holm← U. Mathisen

68'

T. Nyhammer← R. Jenssen

70'

David Edvardsson

76'

N. Wassberg← K. M. Ingason

78'

Lars Olden Larsen

84'

M. Haaland← J. Thorsteinsson

87'

Jacob Lungi Sørensen

90'

M. Haaland

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TromsoBrann

Overview

53%Possession47%

18Total Shots13

1.23Expected Goals (xG)2.74

6Corners2

18Fouls12

Shots

18Total Shots13

4On Target7

4Off Target2

10Blocked4

11Inside Box8

7Outside Box5

Passing

53%Possession47%

507Total Passes473

403Accurate Passes369

79%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

0.98Goals Prevented0.98

Discipline

18Fouls12

3Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1

Match Recap: Tromso vs Brann

Brann beat Tromso 5-0 in Eliteserien on April 29, 2026.

Goals: K. M. Ingason (19', 22', 37'), U. Mathisen (50'), M. Haaland (90').

Tromso controlled possession (53%) and registered 18 shots to 13.

The match was played at Romssa Arena in Tromso.

Tromso vs Brann — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Tromso vs Brann