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Brann vs Tromso — Eliteserien 2026

Brann
Brann
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Tromso
Tromso
B. Finne 90+5' (pen)
J. Haugaard 54' (OG)
E. Kornvig 37'
N. Castro 27'
10/27/2024EliteserienEliteserien · Round 26Brann Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Brann53%
×Draw23%
Tromso24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brann
1.87
Tromso
1.20

Brann creates 56% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 37 away

creates per match

Brann
2.12
Tromso
1.34

allows per match

Brann
1.06
Tromso
1.62

finishing

Brann+0.08on par
Tromso-0.10scores less

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brann ↓

Tromso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Brann or draw
76%
Brann or Tromso
77%
Draw or Tromso
47%

Winning margin

Brann wins by 2+
30%
Tromso wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Brann 1+ goals
85%
Brann 2+ goals
56%
Brann 3+ goals
29%
Tromso 1+ goals
70%
Tromso 2+ goals
34%
Tromso 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Brann (draw refunded)
68%
Tromso (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brann at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.06 · 30 matches

Tromso away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.62 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brann attack 2.12 + Tromso defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.87

Tromso attack 1.34 + Brann defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Brann scores more
53%
level
23%
Tromso scores more
24%

Brann at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Brann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
F. MyhreBrannBrann · M
8.2

Match Events

27'
N. Castro↳ F. Myhre
37'
E. Kornvig↳ O. Didrik Blomberg
45'
Tobias Kvalvagnes Guddal
46'
A. Jenssen← M. Barry
51'
Vetle Skjaervik
54'
J. HaugaardOwn goal
58'
L. Cornic← Y. Paintsil
59'
K. Antonsen← J. Hjertø-Dahl
59'
F. Christensen← J. Romsaas
73'
U. Mathisen← O. Didrik Blomberg
73'
B. Finne← A. Heggebø
82'
Japhet Sery Larsen
83'
I. Vådebu← V. Skjærvik
85'
M. Sande← S. Kartum
90+3'
M. Haaland← N. Castro
90+3'
S. Opsahl← F. Myhre
90+5'
B. FinnePenalty

Possession

63%Brann

Shots

15Brann

Pass accuracy

52%Brann

Statistics

BrannTromso
Overview
63%Possession37%
15Total Shots12
2.38Expected Goals (xG)0.93
3Corners3
7Fouls12
Shots
15Total Shots12
6On Target3
6Off Target5
3Blocked4
9Inside Box4
6Outside Box8
Passing
63%Possession37%
625Total Passes349
536Accurate Passes278
86%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
7Fouls12
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Brann vs Tromso

Brann beat Tromso 4-0 in Eliteserien on October 27, 2024.

Goals: N. Castro (27'), E. Kornvig (37'), J. Haugaard (54' o.g.), B. Finne (90+5' pen).

Brann controlled possession (63%) and registered 15 shots to 12.

The match was played at Brann Stadion in Bergen.