Tromso 1–2 Brann: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Tromso

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Brann

V. Erlien 38'

D. De Roeve 75'

S. Magnusson 63'

8/17/2025

Eliteserien · Round 18Romssa Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Tromso42%

×Draw24%

Brann33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TromsoExpected goals in this matchBrann

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.38

Tromso

1.58

Brann

1.38

Tromso creates 14% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 32 away

1.78

creates per match

1.61

1.15

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Tromso

1.78

Brann

1.61

allows per match

Tromso

1.15

Brann

1.38

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

Tromso-0.17scores less

Brann+0.20scores more

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromso ↓

Brann →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Tromso or draw

67%

Tromso or Brann

76%

Draw or Brann

58%

Winning margin

Tromso wins by 2+

21%

Brann wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Tromso 1+ goals

79%

Tromso 2+ goals

47%

Tromso 3+ goals

21%

Brann 1+ goals

75%

Brann 2+ goals

40%

Brann 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Tromso (draw refunded)

56%

Brann (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromso at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.15 · 41 matches

Brann away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.38 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromso attack 1.78 + Brann defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.58

Brann attack 1.61 + Tromso defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tromso scores more

42%

level

24%

Brann scores more

33%

Tromso at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tromso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

D. De Roeve

Brann · D

7.7

Match Events

20'

Leo Cornic

30'

Abubacarr Kinteh

38'

V. Erlien↳ R. Jenssen

46'

D. De Roeve← F. Knudsen

62'

N. Castro← B. Finne

62'

E. Gudmundsson← U. Mathisen

63'

S. Magnusson↳ E. Gudmundsson

68'

A. Jenssen← V. Skjaervik

71'

M. Hansen← S. Magnusson

75'

D. De Roeve↳ N. Castro

76'

Felix Horn Myhre

78'

D. Braut← Ieltsin Camoes

78'

H. Larsen← J. Hjerto-Dahl

78'

A. Thongla-Iad Warneryd← L. Cornic

87'

Niklas Castro

88'

Eivind Helland

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TromsoBrann

Overview

46%Possession54%

12Total Shots10

0.83Expected Goals (xG)0.64

4Corners4

15Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots10

4On Target2

4Off Target2

4Blocked6

7Inside Box5

5Outside Box5

Passing

46%Possession54%

468Total Passes552

386Accurate Passes470

82%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls10

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0

Eliteserien: Tromso 1–2 Brann

Brann beat Tromso 2-1 in Eliteserien on August 17, 2025.

Goals: V. Erlien (38'), S. Magnusson (63'), D. De Roeve (75').

Brann controlled possession (54%) and registered 10 shots to 12.

The match was played at Romssa Arena in Tromso.

Tromso vs Brann — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Tromso 1–2 Brann