Tristan Suarez 2–2 Almirante Brown: Result & Stats

Tristan Suarez

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Almirante Brown

6/30/2024

Primera Nacional · Round 21Estadio 20 de Octubre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Tristan Suarez44%

×Draw29%

Almirante Brown28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tristan SuarezExpected goals in this matchAlmirante Brown

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.95

Tristan Suarez

1.27

Almirante Brown

0.95

Tristan Suarez creates 34% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 102 away

1.29

creates per match

0.85

1.05

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Tristan Suarez

1.29

Almirante Brown

0.85

allows per match

Tristan Suarez

1.05

Almirante Brown

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tristan Suarez+0.00on par

Almirante Brown+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tristan Suarez ↓

Almirante Brown →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Tristan Suarez or draw

72%

Tristan Suarez or Almirante Brown

71%

Draw or Almirante Brown

56%

Winning margin

Tristan Suarez wins by 2+

20%

Almirante Brown wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Tristan Suarez 1+ goals

72%

Tristan Suarez 2+ goals

36%

Tristan Suarez 3+ goals

14%

Almirante Brown 1+ goals

61%

Almirante Brown 2+ goals

25%

Almirante Brown 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Tristan Suarez (draw refunded)

61%

Almirante Brown (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tristan Suarez at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.05 · 100 matches

Almirante Brown away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.26 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tristan Suarez attack 1.29 + Almirante Brown defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Almirante Brown attack 0.85 + Tristan Suarez defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tristan Suarez scores more

44%

level

29%

Almirante Brown scores more

28%

Tristan Suarez at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tristan Suarez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff