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Almirante Brown vs Tristan Suarez — Primera Nacional 2026

Almirante Brown
Almirante Brown
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Tristan Suarez
Tristan Suarez
2/11/2024Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 2Estadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Almirante Brown42%
×Draw32%
Tristan Suarez27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almirante Brown
1.08
Tristan Suarez
0.80

Almirante Brown creates 35% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 99 away

creates per match

Almirante Brown
0.97
Tristan Suarez
0.85

allows per match

Almirante Brown
0.75
Tristan Suarez
1.19

finishing

Almirante Brown+0.00on par
Tristan Suarez+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almirante Brown ↓

Tristan Suarez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Almirante Brown or draw
73%
Almirante Brown or Tristan Suarez
68%
Draw or Tristan Suarez
58%

Winning margin

Almirante Brown wins by 2+
17%
Tristan Suarez wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Almirante Brown 1+ goals
66%
Almirante Brown 2+ goals
29%
Almirante Brown 3+ goals
10%
Tristan Suarez 1+ goals
55%
Tristan Suarez 2+ goals
19%
Tristan Suarez 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Almirante Brown (draw refunded)
61%
Tristan Suarez (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almirante Brown at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.75 · 104 matches

Tristan Suarez away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.19 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almirante Brown attack 0.97 + Tristan Suarez defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.08

Tristan Suarez attack 0.85 + Almirante Brown defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Almirante Brown scores more
42%
level
32%
Tristan Suarez scores more
27%

Almirante Brown at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Almirante Brown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Nacional: Almirante Brown 1–2 Tristan Suarez

Tristan Suarez beat Almirante Brown 2-1 in Primera Nacional on February 11, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento in La Matanza, Provincia de Buenos Aires.