Almirante Brown 0–0 Tristan Suarez: Result & Stats

Almirante Brown

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tristan Suarez

12/5/2020

Primera B Metropolitana · Upper Table Round - 1Estadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Almirante Brown45%

×Draw31%

Tristan Suarez24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Almirante BrownExpected goals in this matchTristan Suarez

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.75

Almirante Brown

1.13

Tristan Suarez

0.75

Almirante Brown creates 51% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 36 away

1.14

creates per match

0.81

0.69

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Almirante Brown

1.14

Tristan Suarez

0.81

allows per match

Almirante Brown

0.69

Tristan Suarez

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Almirante Brown+0.00on par

Tristan Suarez+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almirante Brown ↓

Tristan Suarez →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Almirante Brown or draw

76%

Almirante Brown or Tristan Suarez

69%

Draw or Tristan Suarez

55%

Winning margin

Almirante Brown wins by 2+

19%

Tristan Suarez wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Almirante Brown 1+ goals

68%

Almirante Brown 2+ goals

31%

Almirante Brown 3+ goals

11%

Tristan Suarez 1+ goals

53%

Tristan Suarez 2+ goals

17%

Tristan Suarez 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Almirante Brown (draw refunded)

65%

Tristan Suarez (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almirante Brown at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.69 · 35 matches

Tristan Suarez away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.11 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almirante Brown attack 1.14 + Tristan Suarez defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.13

Tristan Suarez attack 0.81 + Almirante Brown defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Almirante Brown scores more

45%

level

31%

Tristan Suarez scores more

24%

Almirante Brown at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Almirante Brown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff