Trelleborg 0–1 Kalmar FF: Result & Stats

Trelleborg

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Kalmar FF

4/22/2018

Allsvenskan · Round 5Vångavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Trelleborg27%

×Draw24%

Kalmar FF49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TrelleborgExpected goals in this matchKalmar FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.68

Trelleborg

1.19

Kalmar FF

1.68

Kalmar FF creates 41% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 113 away

0.80

creates per match

1.16

2.20

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Trelleborg

0.80

Kalmar FF

1.16

allows per match

Trelleborg

2.20

Kalmar FF

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trelleborg+0.00on par

Kalmar FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trelleborg ↓

Kalmar FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Trelleborg or draw

51%

Trelleborg or Kalmar FF

76%

Draw or Kalmar FF

73%

Winning margin

Trelleborg wins by 2+

11%

Kalmar FF wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Trelleborg 1+ goals

70%

Trelleborg 2+ goals

33%

Trelleborg 3+ goals

12%

Kalmar FF 1+ goals

81%

Kalmar FF 2+ goals

50%

Kalmar FF 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Trelleborg (draw refunded)

36%

Kalmar FF (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trelleborg at home — creates 0.80, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Kalmar FF away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.58 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trelleborg attack 0.80 + Kalmar FF defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.19

Kalmar FF attack 1.16 + Trelleborg defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Trelleborg scores more

27%

level

24%

Kalmar FF scores more

49%

Kalmar FF at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kalmar FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff