Kalmar FF 2–0 Trelleborg: Result & Stats

Kalmar FF

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Trelleborg

5/11/2025

Superettan · Round 7Guldfågeln Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kalmar FF58%

×Draw22%

Trelleborg20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kalmar FFExpected goals in this matchTrelleborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.01

Kalmar FF

1.90

Trelleborg

1.01

Kalmar FF creates 88% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 110 away

2.07

creates per match

1.15

0.87

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Kalmar FF

2.07

Trelleborg

1.15

allows per match

Kalmar FF

0.87

Trelleborg

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kalmar FF+0.00on par

Trelleborg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalmar FF ↓

Trelleborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Kalmar FF or draw

80%

Kalmar FF or Trelleborg

78%

Draw or Trelleborg

42%

Winning margin

Kalmar FF wins by 2+

34%

Trelleborg wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Kalmar FF 1+ goals

85%

Kalmar FF 2+ goals

56%

Kalmar FF 3+ goals

29%

Trelleborg 1+ goals

64%

Trelleborg 2+ goals

27%

Trelleborg 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Kalmar FF (draw refunded)

75%

Trelleborg (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalmar FF at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Trelleborg away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.72 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalmar FF attack 2.07 + Trelleborg defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.90

Trelleborg attack 1.15 + Kalmar FF defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Kalmar FF scores more

58%

level

22%

Trelleborg scores more

20%

Kalmar FF at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Kalmar FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff